Last spring, cyberattackers with ties to the Russian government targeted rural municipal water plants in Texas, testing the resilience of America’s critical infrastructure. At a plant in Muleshoe, with a population of 5,000, the intrusion caused water to overflow, prompting officials to switch to manual operations. Though the attack did not aim to contaminate the water supply or demand a ransom, it served as a stark reminder of modern national security vulnerabilities, demonstrating that geographical barriers and military might are not enough to protect the United States.
A year on, global digital conflict is on the rise amidst escalating international tensions and the looming threat of a trade war. These developments have heightened concerns that cyberattacks could inflict significant economic damage, disrupt essential public services, compromise confidential data, or even lead to military confrontations. Security and cyber experts are warning of increasing cyber threats and a burgeoning digital arms race as nations bolster their defenses.
In the United States, President Donald Trump has made controversial changes to America’s cybersecurity strategy, including the dismissal of NSA chief Gen. Timothy Haugh, reducing cybersecurity agency roles, and cutting funds for election cybersecurity initiatives. A recent report by NCC Group, a British cybersecurity firm, highlights the growing fear among businesses about cyberattacks, as governments worldwide assume a war footing. “The geopolitical dust is still settling,” said Verona Johnstone-Hulse, a London expert on government cybersecurity policies and the report’s co-author.
Critics argue that the U.S. must adopt a more proactive stance in defending its digital borders. “Hybrid war is here to stay,” said Tom Kellermann, Contrast Security’s senior vice president of cyber strategy. As digital dependence grows, so do vulnerabilities, with everyday devices and enterprise systems becoming potential targets for hackers acting on behalf of foreign governments.
A significant motivation for these attacks is espionage, as evidenced by a hacking campaign linked to China that targeted the phones of officials, including Donald Trump, in the lead-up to the 2024 election. Infiltrations like these aim to access sensitive systems, stealing secrets or monitoring communications, thereby gaining strategic advantages. More evident intrusions serve as warnings or deterrents, such as attacks on Texas’s water infrastructure or those by Iran using cyber tactics for political messaging.
The most alarming cyberattacks, however, are those that embed malware within networks, laying dormant for future activations. National security experts suspect this was China’s motive behind the attack known as Volt Typhoon, which involved compromising U.S. telephone networks. This potentially gives China leverage to disrupt key infrastructure like power grids and hospitals during conflicts or prior to actions like a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The United States, experts suggest, likely possesses similar offensive cyber capabilities. China has dismissed U.S. hacking claims as smears while accusing the U.S. of its own cyber offenses. Against a backdrop of global upheavals such as the Ukraine war, the rising Middle East tensions, and growing economic confrontations, the risk of cyberattacks intensifies. Analysts note burgeoning cyber cooperation among adversaries like China, Iran, and North Korea as they strengthen their converging interests around military and economic alliances.
U.S. adversaries like Iran have supplied Russia with drones, receiving in return Russian intelligence and cyber expertise, according to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Amid fears ignited by Trump’s tariffs, retaliatory cyberattacks could target supply chains, exploiting smaller suppliers with less robust defenses. Cycles of retaliation in cyberspace pose a significant risk, possibly escalating to military conflict, warned former Los Alamos National Laboratory researcher Sonu Shankar.
However, amidst calls for bolstering defenses, Trump has made controversial decisions, such as reducing cybersecurity staffing and shutting down key agencies like the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which monitored online disinformation. These moves have drawn criticism and concern over the U.S.’s preparedness for mounting cyberthreats. For instance, discussions on sensitive topics over Signal, a messaging app, cast doubt over the administration’s cybersecurity commitment.
Despite these challenges, some see progress as nations increasingly recognize the severe implications of cyber threats. Over 20 nations recently endorsed a framework concerning the use of commercial spyware, which the U.S. plans to join. In the U.S., there’s bipartisan support for assisting private industries in enhancing cyber defenses. Federal estimates indicate a need for 500,000 cybersecurity professionals to tackle these challenges, shared Dean Gefen, a former Israeli cyber training leader, and now CEO of NukuDo. “Companies need effective government guidance—a playbook,” Gefen emphasized.