President Donald Trump has openly expressed his enthusiasm for tariffs, viewing them as a multifaceted tool to generate revenue, counteract countries seen as exploiting the U.S. in trade, and leverage negotiations to achieve specific outcomes. Remarkably, even close trading partners like Canada and Mexico have been subjected to these tariffs.
On April 2, Trump declared new extensive tariffs on nearly all trading partners. However, after a significant downturn in the stock market, most of these tariffs were rescinded by April 9. Despite this, Trump continues to assert that tariffs, essentially taxes on imported goods, are yielding billions of dollars daily for the U.S. economy. He reiterated this claim on April 8 at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner, proclaiming significant revenue gains, saying, โWeโre making a fortune with tariffs. $2 billion a day. Do you believe it? I was told $2 billion a day.โ
However, the data tells a different story.
CLAIM: The U.S. is raking in $2 billion per day from tariffs.
THE FACTS: This claim doesnโt hold up against the actual numbers. Initiating the tariff increases in February, the U.S. collected about $7.247 billion in customs duties, averaging $258.82 million daily. In March, customs duties rose to roughly $8.168 billion, translating to approximately $263.48 million per day.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported on April 8 that, due to Trumpโs 13 tariff-related presidential actions, daily collections exceeded $200 million in additional revenue. This agency is primarily responsible for collecting such tariffs.
These figures align with the fiscal 2025 collections to date, beginning October 1 under President Bidenโs administration. The Treasury Department reports collecting $56.215 billion in customs duties and specific excise taxes, equating to around $283.91 million per day. Excise taxes similarly qualify as tariffs.
For the current month, data from the Treasury Department indicates that approximately $3.076 billion in customs and related excise taxes have been collected, averaging around $180.94 million daily.
Economists argue that Trumpโs estimates might derive from the prior fiscal yearโs value of imported goods, without considering how increased tariffs might influence supply and demand. Robert Johnson, an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, stated, โItโs almost certainly the case weโre collecting less than that,โ referring to Trumpโs assertion of $2 billion per day.
The U.S. imported about $3.3 trillion in goods during fiscal 2024, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Speculatively applying the 20% average tariff rate announced by Trump on April 2 results in potential revenue of $660 billionโor about $1.8 billion per day. However, such calculations ignore possible behavioral adjustments. For instance, steeper tariffs could lead importers to discontinue certain imports if profitability is compromised. Similarly, if consumers encounter higher prices from increased tariffs, they may forego purchasing specific goods.
Felix Tintelnot, an economics associate professor at Duke University, remarked, โThatโs the most optimistic scenario, because that wonโt happen,โ regarding Trumpโs $2 billion expectation. Furthermore, Ryan Monarch, an economics assistant professor at Syracuse University, noted, โItโs a very bad assumption to assume that purchases are just completely unchanged.โ
Importantly, U.S. importers, primarily American businesses, pay tariffs, not foreign entities. This revenue contributes to the U.S. Treasury, and these companies usually pass on the higher costs to their consumers via increased prices.
Nonetheless, tariffs can adversely affect foreign nations by inflating their productsโ prices, complicating overseas sales. To cope, foreign companies might lower prices and accept reduced profits to sustain their U.S. market share.
This story was initially published on April 18, 2025, with a correction on April 21, 2025, noting the U.S. would garner $660 billion, not $660 trillion, from imports.