In 2010, Iowa looked quite different from today. Kim Reynolds, then a new face in statewide politics, joined as the Republican lieutenant governor nominee with Terry Branstad. Back then, Iowans mostly supported Democratic President Barack Obama, helping him secure the presidency just two years before.
At that time, Iowa’s political landscape was diverse. The state’s federal delegation was evenly split between parties, and Democrats controlled the Iowa House and Senate. Former President Donald Trump was then largely known for hosting his reality TV show, “The Apprentice.” Fast forward to the present, Kim Reynolds’ unexpected announcement that she would not pursue a third gubernatorial term has shaken up the political scene in Des Moines, opening the field for a fresh Republican primary race—the first since 2010.
This development brings a glimmer of hope among Democrats who see a potential for turning the tide after years of Republican dominance. However, this shift would likely need a significant pushback against Trump’s policies, something more probable during a midterm election year. A competitive candidate with substantial funding is crucial; State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat elected statewide, hasn’t confirmed a gubernatorial candidacy yet but boasts $8 million in campaign funds, primarily from personal and family contributions.
Meanwhile, numerous Iowa Republicans are contemplating their political futures after Reynolds’ decision. Attorney General Brenna Bird, Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig, House Speaker Pat Grassley—a direct descendant of Iowa’s senior U.S. senator—and Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, son of the state GOP chairman, are among those mulling over entering the race.
Trump’s political journey and his subsequent election as president had led Reynolds to become Iowa’s first female governor after Branstad was appointed U.S. ambassador to China. Since then, she secured election victories for full terms in 2018 and 2022 and has overseen Iowa’s shift towards a predominantly Republican state, with GOP majorities across almost all statewide and federal positions.
Reynolds is notably the first eligible incumbent governor in the country to decide against running in 2026, signaling a forthcoming political change in Iowa as the state approaches a midterm election year. David Oman, a former chief of staff for Republican governors, highlights the unexpected nature of Reynolds’ decision, suggesting that a well-established candidate like Reynolds would have significantly influenced the race if she had chosen to run.
While Iowa lacks gubernatorial term limits, creating limited turnover historically, Reynolds’ decision grants a rare opportunity for political ambitions. In her announcement on April 11, Reynolds highlighted the state’s enduring “strong conservative leadership,” hinting at capable Republican leaders ready to vie for leadership roles across the state.
For several politicians, this moment presents a chance they have been waiting for, as acknowledged by Reynolds who noted the 16-year period since the last open seat. The unfolding governor’s race will mark the first since Trump’s deepening connection with the Republican Party, especially significant in Iowa, where he dominated the 2024 GOP presidential caucuses.
The possibility of Trump endorsing a candidate leaves speculation wide open. Since 2017, Trump has backed numerous gubernatorial candidates before their primaries, and most advanced to the general election. The outcome of a primary, regardless of Trump’s endorsement, could set off a ripple effect impacting other races, particularly if current lawmakers opt to join the gubernatorial race, thus vacating their own positions.
In response, the Democratic campaign teams are setting their sights on three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, two of which stand as some of the country’s most competitive contests. The Democratic Governors Association also sees a potential opening, believing that the absence of an incumbent governor might lead to a Democrat win in 2026.
“When there are big open Republican primaries, they tend to elect extreme and flawed candidates that struggle in general elections,” said Sam Newton, the communications director for the Democratic Governors Association. “We’re keeping a close eye on it.”