In Seoul, South Korea, an unexpected presidential election is set for June 3 to find a successor for Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon, a conservative figure, was removed from office due to his enforcement of martial law, a decision made by the Constitutional Court. This ruling necessitates an election within 60 days, and the new president will serve a five-year term.
The election is anticipated to be a fierce contest primarily between Yoon’s People Power Party and the Democratic Party, which currently dominates the National Assembly. The People Power Party faces the challenging task of rebuilding public trust and mending the internal rifts caused by Yoon’s martial law decision. Observers are keen to see if the conservatives can rally around a formidable candidate to contend with the Democratic Party’s likely nominee, Lee Jae-myung, who is viewed as the favorite.
South Korean political factions are poised to initiate primaries to select their candidates for the presidency. Lee Jae-myung, a significant leader within the Democratic Party, is expected to secure the nomination without significant opposition within his party. Having narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, Lee has led the Democratic Party through turbulent times, notably when Yoon’s forces attempted to besiege the National Assembly, resulting in his own party members impeaching the leader and quashing the martial law.
The conservative People Power Party anticipates around ten hopefuls vying for the nomination. However, the party grapples with the fallout from Yoon’s martial law declaration, which invoked painful memories of military rule, tarnishing the party’s image. Although not directly implicated, Yoon’s actions sparked internal conflict, with some members voting to impeach him, opposing those who defended his presidency. While Yoon retains strong support from certain factions within the party and public, these divisions threaten the party’s stability.
Leaders from academia, like Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha University, suggest that the conservative party is entering the election at a disadvantage. The party’s present leadership, comprising mainly of Yoon’s allies, could hinder efforts to mend internal divides and improve electoral chances, according to presidential leadership expert Choi Jin. Yoon is expected to support pro-Yoon candidates for leadership and nomination, motivated by his impending criminal trials subsequent to losing presidential immunity.
The People Power Party faces pressure to nominate a candidate who appeals to the broader public, particularly moderates and young voters, as pointed out by analyst Duyeon Kim. These voter groups, especially those in their 20s and 30s, may play a pivotal role in the election outcome. Among the People Power Party’s potential candidates, Kim Moon Soo is seen as most loyal to Yoon, whereas other figures like Ahn Cheol-soo and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon have demonstrated varying degrees of support or neutrality regarding Yoon’s impeachment.
On the other side, Lee Jae-myung, supported by his stint as both a provincial governor and city mayor, is viewed as a populist reformer rallying the opposition. Nevertheless, his critics accuse him of divisive tactics and branding opponents unjustly. While Lee faces multiple legal challenges related to corruption, these proceedings would likely be paused if he were elected president due to presidential immunity. Yoon has often criticized Lee’s party for leveraging legislative power to thwart his plans, labeling his martial law as a dire attempt to counteract what he termed as the Democratic Party’s ‘wickedness’.
Despite criticism, Lee has effectively consolidated his influence within the Democratic Party, enhancing his prospects for presidency. His political acumen has seen the removal of non-aligning progressive figures and solidified his control over the party leadership. As the election approaches, he remains in a strong position to claim victory.