The decision by South Korea’s Constitutional Court to officially remove President Yoon Suk Yeol from office has presented the nation with another significant test of its democratic robustness. This ruling comes amidst an intensifying divide between conservative and liberal factions concerning Yoon’s declaration of martial law and his subsequent impeachment.
The court’s verdict on Friday paves the way for a by-election to select a new president, injecting a fresh dynamic into the political landscape. Although Yoon is facing rebellion charges, it is expected he will continue to remain a potent political figure. He is likely to invigorate his core supporters and play a pivotal role in the leadership selection within his party, which has been fervently calling for his return to power.
All eight justices of the Constitutional Court supported the motion to impeach Yoon, thereby removing him as president. The political upheaval originated on December 3, when Yoon declared martial law and ordered military forces to the National Assembly. Despite this, lawmakers bravely entered the assembly building, passing a vote to annul martial law in a matter of hours.
On December 14, the liberal-majority assembly impeached Yoon, suspending his presidency. They accused him of constitutional violations for declaring martial law, deploying troops to governmental institutions, and seeking to arrest political adversaries. Under South Korean law, martial law is only permissible during war or national crises akin to war. Yoon justified his actions as a necessary measure to highlight what he termed an “anti-state” opposition that hindered his political agenda.
The court dismissed Yoon’s arguments, emphasizing that even under martial law, a president cannot disrupt legislative activities. Testimonies from military and police officers illustrated a clear but flawed attempt to seize control of the legislature. The Constitutional Court articulated that Yoon “mobilized military and police forces to obstruct the exercise of legislative authority” and thus breached constitutional and statutory boundaries.
The court’s ruling mandates South Korea to hold a presidential election within 60 days, likely resulting in one of the most contentious elections since the 1980s transition to democracy. The country is deeply divided politically, and the events surrounding Yoon have only heightened tensions. His conservative supporters have already demonstrated against judicial decisions, and doubts regarding electoral integrity persist, potentially undermining trust and stability in the democratic process.
With the upcoming election, enhancing security at voting venues will be essential to prevent disruptions, according to political analysts. There’s concern among experts that unresolved political divisions could destabilize democracy if opposing sides refuse to accept unfavorable election results.
Yoon, known for not conceding easily, might continue to assert his influence. He could mobilize supporters in protests and seek to tighten his grip on the People Power Party. Despite the court’s ruling, Yoon has not explicitly confirmed whether he accepts their decision. He has publicly called on his party to focus on winning the forthcoming election.
Concerning his impending rebellion trial, a conviction could lead to severe penalties such as death or life imprisonment. Yoon would prefer a conservative president capable of issuing a pardon if needed, making the party’s selection of a presidential candidate crucial for his future. Yoon’s involvement could transform the upcoming election into a proxy race between him and Lee Jae-myung, a liberal rival he narrowly defeated in the 2022 elections. Both face their own legal battles.
The next president will inherit significant challenges, including economic disruptions and the strained diplomatic ties stemming from Yoon’s actions. South Korea will face foreign policy challenges, particularly in its relationships with the United States and neighboring nations. Without a full government in place to engage in diplomatic dialogue ahead of formal talks with the U.S. administration, strategic planning will be critical.
Yoon was briefly incarcerated but released as his trial proceeds. Without presidential immunity, he now faces the prospect of additional criminal charges beyond rebellion, linked to his martial law maneuvers. His legal team and former officials, including high-ranking military and police personnel implicated in the martial law episode, are also facing legal repercussions.