RIO DE JANEIRO — Once hailed by former U.S. President Barack Obama as the most popular politician worldwide, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now facing a steep decline in approval ratings, illustrating a contrast to his prior political acclaim.
During his current four-year term, Lula has experienced a significant drop in public support to unprecedented levels across his three periods in office. Despite economic growth and a reduction in unemployment, Brazilian citizens express grievances over escalating food prices and crime rates.
Recent polling data from Datafolha reveals Lula’s approval rating has plummeted to 24%, the lowest compared to his previous administrations, including his tenure from 2003 to 2010 and since his return to office in 2023. The current figure surpasses the earlier low of 28% recorded in 2005, with other polling companies also indicating rising public discontent.
In a strategic move to regain favor, Lula’s government is organizing an event in Brasilia to showcase federal achievements from the past two years according to a recent presidential palace statement.
Lula is navigating a turbulent political environment, with his former adversary, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, facing trial on allegations concerning a coup attempt. These challenges arise as Lula considers a re-election campaign next year.
The soaring cost of food is notably impacting Lula’s declining popularity, as Brazil’s national statistics agency reported an almost 8% increase in food and beverage prices in 2024 compared to the prior year.
Economist Carla Beni from Getulio Vargas Foundation highlights the increased cost of essential items like meat due to climate change impacts on agriculture and a stronger dollar against the Brazilian real. This elevation in food expenses disproportionately affects the nation’s poorer populations, historically Lula’s primary support base.
A recent poll by Genial/Quaest indicates rising displeasure among women, Black individuals, and residents of Brazil’s economically challenged northeast region. Dissatisfaction among northeast respondents surged from 26% to 46% within six months, with a notable shift in female voter sentiment unfavorably viewing the administration.
Resident Anderson Vianna of Rio de Janeiro’s northern zone expressed concerns over both high costs and safety, stating the increased risk of crime has become a daily concern, impacting previous Lula supporters like himself.
In response to rising food prices, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced plans to eliminate import taxes on several products, including meat and coffee, as of March 6. However, these efforts have not significantly altered public perceptions.
João Feres, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University, notes Lula’s government struggles with effectively communicating the impact of its policies to the public.
Further complicating matters for Lula was the backlash from a government announcement in January regarding increased oversight on financial transactions, specifically through Brazil’s popular PIX system. Despite clarifications, the initial misunderstanding fueled by misinformation significantly damaged Lula’s public image.
Crime remains a major concern for Brazilians, ranking as a top issue post-COVID pandemic restrictions. A recent viral video of a phone theft at the Lollapalooza festival in Sao Paulo underscores these fears, with Datafolha reporting nearly 10% of Brazilians experienced phone theft between mid-2023 and mid-2024.
To address crime, Lula has adopted a sterner stance, affirming efforts to prevent criminal dominance. Plans to increase penalties for crimes involving stolen cellphones are underway, alongside developing broader security-focused legislation.
Lula’s administration is also proposing economic adjustments, aiming to cut income taxes for lower earners. A bill submitted to Congress seeks to exempt incomes up to 5000 reais monthly from taxes, potentially benefiting Lula if it gains legislative approval.
With Bolsonaro unable to run until 2030, Brazil’s upcoming election landscape appears less predictable, according to economist Paulo Feldmann. Meanwhile, voters like Vianna express uncertainty regarding future presidential support, hinting at a desire for political renewal.