A series of spring elections delivered an early caution to Republicans and President Donald Trump, as Democrats mobilized against Trump’s efforts to cut federal programs and the prominent influence of billionaire Elon Musk in his fledgling administration.
The headline race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court saw a setback for the conservative judge backed by Trump and financially supported by Musk’s interests, losing by 10 points in a state Trump secured in November. Even though Florida Republicans retained control of two highly pro-Trump House districts, both candidates fell short of matching Trump’s previous electoral performance.
These elections, which were the most significant since Trump’s comeback, served to gauge public sentiment as Trump aggressively tries to reshape federal governance, frequently colliding with judicial interpretations and navigating the limits of executive power.
Historically, the opposition party—following a presidential loss in November—tends to gain ground in midterm elections. Tuesday’s outcomes provided optimism for Democrats, who are eager to ride this wave after enduring criticism for their response to Trump. Charlie Kirk, a conservative activist, pointed out the Supreme Court defeat in Wisconsin as a major challenge for Republicans, especially in elections absent of Trump as a candidate.
“We put forth great effort in Wisconsin but fell short. We must recognize that we are now the party of low-propensity voters,” he declared in a social media post, emphasizing the need for a strategic shift to tackle the unique dynamics of off-cycle elections.
The results marked substantial changes in Wisconsin, with Trump having narrowly claimed the state by a slim margin of under 30,000 votes in November. In this inaugural major test since Trump’s re-election, Wisconsin moved significantly leftwards. Sauk County, traditionally indicative of statewide trends, shifted 16 points in favor of Susan Crawford, a liberal judge supported by national Democrats and influential figures like George Soros.
Crawford witnessed strong numbers in staunchly Democratic urban centers and also improved her performance in Milwaukee’s suburbs, which are crucial for Republican victories statewide. Additionally, she secured wins in Kenosha and Racine counties, regions Trump had previously carried against Democratic challenger Kamala Harris.
Across the state, many voters interviewed expressed that their decisions were largely reactions against Trump’s initial months in office rather than comments on state judiciary matters. Linda Grassl, a retired healthcare professional, remarked, “This is our chance to say no,” after casting her vote. Theresa Peer, a Milwaukee business proprietor, voiced that Crawford’s potential victory could symbolize opposition to Trump’s policies, especially regarding women’s rights and educational budget cuts.
Moreover, there was criticism of Musk’s involvement, particularly as he was the largest donor and even campaigned in Green Bay. Voter Antonio Gray expressed discontent with Musk’s influence, stating that the election should remain in the hands of the electorate.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer responded to the election results by calling it “a political wake-up call” and a notable indication that Democrats’ strategies are gaining traction. Schumer highlighted growing public fatigue with Trump’s tumultuous approach and Musk’s attacks on social programs.
However, notable figures like former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker advised caution against broad interpretations of these outcomes on a national level. Walker argued that tying the state Supreme Court race to Trump represented a complex challenge in a state-specific judicial context. Yet, the presence or absence of Trump’s physical participation could have swayed results.
In Florida, meanwhile, Republican Randy Fine successfully retained a House seat in a special election, although the margin was significantly narrower compared to previous results by his predecessor, who had a much larger victory margin.
Overall, the results left Republicans with a delicate majority in the House of Representatives. Voters remained connected to Trump as the central figure, with some choosing candidates merely based on perceived allegiance to Trump’s leadership, underscoring the enduring influence of Trump’s identity within the Republican electorate.