In the political landscape of 2026, elections in Florida and Wisconsin stand as significant indicators of President Donald Trump’s influence early in his second tenure. Central to this are the key battles unfolding in both states.
The primary spotlight is on Wisconsin, where a pivotal election for a Supreme Court seat, ostensibly nonpartisan, is underway with a staggering $90 million in expenditures. This race has seen President Trump and billionaire Elon Musk rallying behind conservative judge Brad Schimel, while progressive billionaires and the Democratic party throw their support behind liberal contender Susan Crawford.
Meanwhile, Florida features crucial congressional races in Republican-leaning districts, which play a significant role amid a closely divided chamber. While Republicans hope to maintain these seats, they face a steep financial battle as Democrats have far outpaced them in fundraising, especially in the contest succeeding Mike Waltz, now the national security adviser under Trump.
Key electoral battlegrounds in Wisconsin include Milwaukee and Dane Counties. These traditionally Democratic strongholds were instrumental in past elections, such as in 2024 when Kamala Harris secured strong victories there, even though she narrowly lost the state. A similar scenario unfolded in 2023 when liberal Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz leveraged these areas to win with a comfortable margin.
In contrast, Republican success often hinges on the “WOW” counties—Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha—where a solid GOP turnout can counterbalance urban Democratic votes. These counties have remained Republican bastions in major elections since at least 2016.
Green Bay’s Brown County also plays a significant role. Although traditionally leaning Republican with Trump winning comfortably there, Democrats have made headway, winning statewide after securing the county in past elections, which was demonstrated by Tony Evers and Protasiewicz in their respective campaigns.
Sauk County, while competitive and often siding with Democrats, doesn’t decisively swing in most elections. However, Republican victories here signal broader gains statewide, as evidenced by Trump’s past wins.
Switching to Florida, Democrats are optimistic amid successful fundraising endeavors in two traditionally conservative districts. However, the voting history heavily tilts Republican, making these districts difficult to flip. President Trump, for example, captured the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts with significant majorities during his campaigns.
Despite the region’s history of favoring Republicans—evident in long-standing GOP dominance across these counties—Democrats aim for a surprise victory. Escambia County in the 1st District and Volusia County in the 6th District are areas to watch for potential Democratic gains. These regions previously offered better results for Democrats, even though they skewed Republican in the last few elections.
These elections serve as vital tests of current political alignments and Trump’s enduring influence, casting light on future electoral landscapes.