PRESCOTT, Ariz. — This year, winter seemed to take a vacation from much of the U.S. Several regions, stretching from the southwestern United States to Minnesota, Iowa, and even parts of New Jersey, experienced an anomalously dry season. With minimal snowfall and dry vegetation, these conditions have created a perfect storm for increased wildfire risks.
In preparation, over 1,000 firefighters and fire managers recently gathered in Arizona for an annual wildfire academy. Training ranged from aerial operations to manual brush clearing and constructing fire lines. Consensus among the academy officials indicated that firefighters would face a challenging season, with forecasts predicting continued warm and dry weather, especially in the Southwest.
The drought has influenced how fires might behave at the beginning and throughout the season, according to Roy Hall, prescribed fire officer at the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, who noted the prolonged dryness in Arizona.
How severe has the dryness been, exactly? According to experts from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, total U.S. winter precipitation was just under 6 inches (15.24 cm), nearly an inch below the norm. The past winter season saw the December-February period ranking as the third driest in recorded history.
Flagstaff, a city in northern Arizona, traditionally a sanctuary for desert residents seeking snow activities, concluded winter with a 50-inch (1.27 m) snow deficit. While a significant storm hit in mid-March, closing Interstate 40 and stranding motorists, it couldn’t make up for the shortfall.
In New Mexico, at least 17 sites reported their driest winters, with Albuquerque setting a new low with just 0.12 inches (0.30 cm) of precipitation over three months. Andrew Mangham, a senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, remarked on a recent call with state and federal drought experts that the “tap just turned off,” and drought conditions persisted.
What are the implications for wildfire conditions? States like Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, alongside parts of the Midwest, have already experienced red flag warnings—a blend of low humidity and warm, windy conditions that heighten wildfire risks. Oklahoma faced a reality check when mid-March fires destroyed hundreds of homes. Fires also flared up in New Jersey and the Carolinas.
Western regions remain apprehensive, as insufficient snowpack in mountain ranges lessens the moisture that curbs rapid fire spread. April 1 typically marks the snowpack peak, but melting has occurred faster than expected, accelerated by spring winds depositing dust.
Notably, even southern Alaska experiences snow shortages at lower elevations. February at Anchorage airport was the driest recorded, with vast areas in southwest and south-central Alaska nearly snow-free by March 1. Recent precipitation in California has nudged snow levels close to average, though the southern part battles moderate to severe drought.
A new wildfire outlook released recently indicates above-normal fire potential from southeast Arizona to New Mexico, West Texas, and Oklahoma. There’s similar elevated potential forecasted from southern Alaska to parts of the southern Appalachians down to Florida. Come June, California will likely join this critical list. In January, fires there set a record for urban destruction not seen since the 1980s.
Communities are responding to these threats. The earlier fires that swept through Los Angeles spurred regional leaders, including those in New Mexico’s San Juan County, to hold awareness meetings. This area, part of the Four Corners region, is under vigilant watch for high fire potential due to the unfavorable conditions. Firefighters in San Juan County tackled 25 wildfires in March’s first 27 days.
In Arizona, the Phoenix Fire Department has informed officials of growing threats and plans to enhance departmental resources. This action aims to contain fires before they spread, particularly near urban-wildland interfaces. In Scottsdale, Mayor Lisa Borowsky has suggested forming a volunteer brigade for fire prevention, pointing out possible risks due to invasive species and overgrown vegetation in the McDowell Sonoran Preserve. Local fire crews have been working on clearing brush along roadways.
Christopher Reed, a fire prevention captain with the Arizona Forestry Department, underscores the criticality of individual preparation. He insists that wildfire management is not only a large-scale concern—it starts at home. “We always say Day 1 of firefighting is now,” Reed emphasized.