PARIS — The fate of French far-right politician Marine Le Pen hinges on a crucial verdict expected soon, as she described it as a potential end to her political career. The ruling concerns allegations that Le Pen and her National Rally party misappropriated funds from the European Parliament. Should she be convicted, the ramifications could hinder her aspirations to contend in the 2027 French presidential race.
The accusations involve claims that Le Pen, along with 24 other party members, diverted funds allocated for EU parliamentary assistants to instead finance party personnel between 2004 and 2016. These actions allegedly breach the European Union’s financial regulations. Le Pen, now 56, and her co-defendants have persistently denied these charges during their trial in late 2024.
Of prime concern for Le Pen is the possibility of being declared ineligible to run for public office. A conviction could lead to immediate disqualification from candidacy, regardless of an appeal. The court will also deliberate on whether Le Pen should face prison time, though such a sentence would be postponed during the appeals process. Appealing could lead to a retrial in 2026, perilously close to the presidential elections.
Le Pen has anticipated the potential of a guilty verdict, expressing a lack of confidence in swaying the court’s decision. Her defense, however, remains steadfast against the prosecution’s demand for a two-year prison sentence and five-year disqualification from office, which she perceives as an attempt to terminate her political presence.
Recently, the Constitutional Council made a significant ruling affirming that immediate disqualification aligns with the French Constitution. However, it urged that any such decisions must be proportional and mindful of voters’ rights. Although this case was separate from Le Pen’s, its outcome offers guidance that could influence the judges’ decision in her case. The Council also highlighted the option of deferring any ban pending an appeal, should the court choose.
Marine Le Pen’s prospects as a future presidential candidate are notable, having worked over a decade to moderate her party’s image and expand its voter base. After leading the National Rally from 2011 to 2021, she distanced the party from her father’s contentious era by renaming it, mitigating associations with past extremism. As a current member of the National Assembly and a former presidential runner-up to Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen has demonstrated substantial electoral strength, securing 41.5% of the vote in the 2022 elections.
Le Pen argued that disqualification would unjustly strip millions of supporters of their candidate, having garnered significant backing in prior elections.
Potential alternatives in the event of her disqualification include Jordan Bardella, her successor as party leader in 2021 and a likely prime minister candidate should she win a presidential seat. His rapid ascent in the party, beginning at age 17, and his roles as spokesperson and president of the youth wing, position him as a natural successor. However, some within the party express concerns over his leadership focusing too narrowly on personal ambitions, which raises doubts about his ability to retain voter support.