BANGKOK — Since gaining independence from Britain in 1948, Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has faced continuous struggles with both warfare and natural calamities. The recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck on Friday presents a particularly challenging situation for relief operations, as the nation remains entangled in a prolonged civil conflict initiated when the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in February 2021.
In a gesture aimed at facilitating relief efforts, Myanmar’s main opposition against military rule has announced a unilateral ceasefire, set to commence on Sunday, lasting for two weeks in the earthquake-affected regions. The military government, notorious for its strict control and violent crackdowns, as well as its restricted aid access for over 3 million people displaced due to ongoing conflicts, has yet to respond to this announcement.
The military’s tight control over aid distribution has often been criticized as a tactic to manipulate assistance as a form of leverage. Critics and organizations supporting the resistance have urged that international aid be directed towards areas controlled by opposition forces.
A complex web of actors dominates Myanmar’s continuing conflict. Following the military’s forceful seizure from Suu Kyi’s government, which had just been re-elected, the military cracked down on pro-democracy movements with lethal force. Despite facing significant disadvantages in terms of weapons and numbers, resistance fighters allied with ethnic minority groups have been holding their ground, reportedly controlling more territory over time.
Coordinated by the self-proclaimed National Unity Government (NUG), the resistance claims legitimacy through its formation by elected representatives. Operating covertly, it possesses a military arm known as the People’s Defense Force (PDF), which comprises mostly local defense groups. Although these groups are typically under-equipped, they benefit from familiarity with the local terrain. Their ethnic allies have managed to not only sustain their operations but also produce weapons independently in some instances.
In light of the devastation caused by the earthquake, the NUG announced on Saturday that the PDF will initiate a temporary suspension of offensive strategies in the affected areas, reserving the right to defend its territories if necessary. It also expressed willingness to cooperate with the United Nations and international NGOs to secure and facilitate the establishment of rescue and medical camps. The resistance is seeking to send healthcare professionals from its ranks to collaborate with global humanitarian bodies in regions under military control, pending security assurances.
Although the PDF’s announcement of a ceasefire holds more symbolic significance, given their usual reliance on defensive and surprise attacks, it bolsters the argument of their backers for unfettered aid distribution. There remains skepticism regarding the military government’s intent and capacity to manage foreign aid impartially, highlighted by their past handling of crises.
Previous incidents, such as the 2008 Cyclone Nargis, saw the military hesitating to permit foreign aid workers and supplies, with eventual acceptance marred by strict conditions. Similarly, the response to Cyclone Mocha in May 2023 was delayed, and independent relief efforts were frequently stifled while official casualty figures were substantially understated, pointing to systemic inadequacies and obstruction of aid.
History provides examples where recovery efforts from natural disasters have contributed to peace-building in conflicted regions. Notably, Indonesia’s Aceh province witnessed a return to peace following reconstruction after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. It remains to be seen whether Myanmar can harness such a humanitarian opportunity amid its deeply entrenched conflicts.