While campaigning, Donald Trump stirred strong emotions concerning transgender individuals’ rights to participate in sports and access restrooms, rallying conservative voters and influencing those on the fence. In his initial months back in office, Trump intensified the issue by erasing references to transgender individuals from government platforms like websites, passports, and the military.
This situation reveals a striking paradox: though transgender individuals represent less than 1% of the American populace, they have become a focal point on the political battlefield, especially under Trump’s agenda. For transgender people and their advocates, and judges opposing Trump’s maneuvers legally, this is a matter of civil rights for a minority group. However, many Americans feel these rights had ballooned excessively.
The president’s attention alters the dynamic of Monday’s Transgender Day of Visibility. Rachel Crandall Crocker, leader of Transgender Michigan and founder of the Day of Visibility 16 years ago, remarked, “Trump aims to intimidate us into hiding again. We must demonstrate our resilience.”
So how did this small demographic gain such prominence in political discourse? The focus on transgender issues is part of a longstanding movement. Trump’s strategy echoes a belief that transgender individuals are potentially dangerous, men infiltrate women’s spaces, or people undergo gender changes they might regret. On the contrary, significant medical organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Medical Association, affirm that gender-affirming treatment can be crucial and is backed by research.
Zein Murib, who teaches political science and gender studies at Fordham University, points to a long-standing campaign aimed at reestablishing Christian nationalist values, which sharpened its focus on transgender individuals post-2015 when the Supreme Court sanctioned same-sex marriage nationwide. Over time, some of these perspectives gained traction.
Advocates for restrictive measures anchor their arguments in concepts of fairness and safety, drawing broad public attention. Restrictions on transgender individuals in sports and bathroom access are linked to protecting spaces for women and girls, despite data showing transgender women are more likely to face violence. Barriers to schools endorsing gender transition tie into preserving parental authority, and stopgaps on gender-affirming care partly rely on the notion that recipients may regret it, although evidence suggests regret is rare.
Since 2020, around half the states have enacted laws barring transgender individuals from gender-aligned sports participation and have placed bans or restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors. At least 14 states have laws controlling which bathrooms transgender individuals can use.
It’s not merely political maneuvering. “Whether this is a politically viable approach is secondary to its immediate impact on trans individuals,” Zein Murib stated. Several voters feel transgender rights have become excessive. According to AP VoteCast, 55% of 2024 voters believe transgender rights advances are too far-reaching. Conversely, about two in ten voters find the support adequate, and a similar portion thinks it’s insufficient.
Nonetheless, voters are divided over laws banning gender-affirming medical treatments, like puberty blockers or hormone therapy for minors, with just over half opposing these laws while nearly half support them. Trump voters are predominantly inclined to believe transgender rights have overextended, whereas Kamala Harris’ supporters are more divided. Approximately 40% of Harris voters think transgender rights haven’t advanced enough, 36% view the status as correct, and a quarter believe it has gone too far.
Research by the Pew Research Center suggests Americans are increasingly supportive of requiring transgender athletes to compete according to their birth sex and support bans on gender-affirming medical care for minors—a trend observed since 2022. Despite this, most Democrats remain oppositional to such policies.
Leor Sapir, from the Manhattan Institute, asserts that Trump and other Republicans have gained a political advantage by positioning Democrats unfavorably, challenging them to choose between their progressive base and median voters. However, not everyone concurs with this viewpoint.
Olivia Hunt, from Advocates for Trans Equality, remarked, “People across party lines agree that the current major crises in the U.S. don’t stem from transgender existence and participation.” Meanwhile, with Trump’s presidential return, Delaware voters made history by electing Sarah McBride, the first transgender Congress member.
The full political implications are yet to unfold. Paisley Currah of the City University of New York commented that conservatives target the small transgender population partly due to their limited numbers. Currah noted, “Because it’s so small, it’s relatively unknown,” with Trump framing trans issues as emblematic of excessive progressiveness.
Democrats recognize the group’s small size, said Seth Masket from the University of Denver, who is writing about the GOP. “Many Democrats aren’t overly passionate about defending this demographic,” Masket explained, noting polling insights. For Republicans, the broad support of transgender rights underscores a misalignment with prevalent sentiments.
“Democrats continue to align with unpopular positions, illustrating their disconnect with the American populace,” commented National Republican Congressional Committee’s Mike Marinella.
This message seemingly penetrates. The California Governor, Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 Democratic contender, recently spoke against transgender participation in girls’ sports during his podcast introduction in March. Several Democrats concur the party dedicates too much focus to transgender rights, with figures like U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto opposing transgender athlete participation in women’s sports.
Jay Jones, a transgender woman and Howard University’s student government president, observes her generation as largely accepting of transgender individuals. “Trump’s strategy to weaponize the trans community to create an adversary might not catch on as he expects,” she said.