In Kyiv, concerns are mounting as Russian forces gear up for a new military offensive aimed at ramping up pressure on Ukraine and bolstering the Kremlin’s leverage in ceasefire negotiations. Ukrainian officials and military analysts suggest that this anticipated move could encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone peace talks in favor of territorial gain, cementing the belief that Russia is not yet ready to engage in genuine dialogue to conclude the conflict.
The forthcoming spring fighting season may witness Russia launching an extensive military push along the 1,000-kilometer front line, according to intelligence assessments shared by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Regions like Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia in the northeast are particularly on edge as a result.
Zelenskyy, during a visit to Paris, stated that the Kremlin’s strategy seemingly involves stalling through futile discussions with the U.S. about illusory ‘conditions’, a maneuver meant to gain time before expanding its territorial control. This sentiment was echoed by two G7 diplomatic sources based in Kyiv, who requested anonymity as they weren’t authorized to speak to the media.
The efforts for a temporary truce hit a setback with Russia’s implicit rejection of a U.S. proposition for an immediate, full 30-day halt to hostilities. Tensions further exacerbated when conditions for even a limited ceasefire on the Black Sea were deemed too far-reaching by Kremlin negotiators.
Recently, Dnipro in eastern Ukraine experienced a deadly attack by Russian drones that resulted in four fatalities and injured 24 others, as reported by regional Governor Serhii Lysak. Similarly, a Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown, left at least eight injured.
On battlefield dynamics, Putin maintains a confident stance, asserting strategic control across the entire front line. At a forum in Murmansk, he highlighted the Russian military’s daily territorial advancements. Subsequently, Ukrainian commanders acknowledged heightened Russian attacks aimed at gaining tactical advantage before launching a larger offensive.
Ukrainian military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi, drawing insights from soldiers at the front, suggested that Russia is biding its time until May. Russian and North Korean forces have reclaimed most of the Kursk region from Ukrainian control, disrupting Kyiv’s strategic maneuvers. Intense conflicts continue to flare up in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, raising concerns about potential troop reallocations by Russia.
Donetsk region’s anonymous Ukrainian battalion commander expressed worries about Russian forces gaining momentum from their successes in Kursk. Military analyst Oleksii Hetman predicted Russia’s offensive could persist for six to nine months, spanning nearly the entire year 2025.
In negotiations, Russia arrived with an upper hand, especially after securing its territorial grip in Kursk. Meanwhile, fighting has escalated along other parts of the front line. Hetman emphasized that the unyielding clash frequency counters any narrative that Russia might end the war soon.
Some observed increased reconnaissance by Russia, hinting at preparations for future attacks. Economic realities are also shaping dire straits, with Zelenskyy highlighting Russian strategies in Sumy, one of the regions set for a Russian spring offensive. As the situation grows tenser, Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine finds itself under rising attacks, compromising its role as a defensive nucleus in Donetsk.
Maj. Viktor Trehubov relayed how Russian forces paused in early March and later intensified efforts when conditions favored them. The “Italian,” a Ukrainian soldier, noted heightened Russian scouting around Pokrovsk, signaling military reinforcement bolstered by new vehicles. “This indicates fresh forces are in play,” he observed.
Looking southward, the blog Rybar, managed by ex-Russian Ministry of Defense officer Mikhail Zvinchuk, described a new Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia that aims to stretch Ukrainian defenses thin, marking possible Russian territorial ambitions. Meanwhile, Vladyslav Voloshyn from Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces described anxiety due to Russia consolidating its troops for aggressive maneuvers.
While Russia may project confidence about its offensive capacity, Ukrainian forces scramble to prepare. Analyst Sergey Poletaev commented that both sides are bracing for a decisive spring-summer campaign, hinting at the potential challenges faced by Ukraine in gearing up effectively.
Negotiations elsewhere yielded modest outcomes, as expressed skepticism over their effectiveness persists. Following Russia’s dismissal of the U.S.-sponsored full ceasefire proposal, talks continued around partial agreements concerning Black Sea navigation. But these talks were stymied by Russia’s demands to reintegrate its state bank into SWIFT, a condition neither Kyiv nor the EU found acceptable.
On the ground, combatants like the soldier known as Italian expressed fatigue mixed with hope for change amidst seemingly stagnant conflict resolutions. “While confidence in talks dwindles, there’s still a wish for a shift in the war’s dynamics, as current conditions are unfavorable,” he shared.
In summary, Ukraine remains on high alert, preparing for a potential escalation as Russia hints at a sustained military campaign to influence future negotiations. Both parties continue in a tug-of-war over territorial and diplomatic gains, with the shadow of conflict extending deeper into the year.