The state of Wisconsin is gearing up for its spring election scheduled for Tuesday, marking the first significant test of the political landscape since Donald Trump re-entered the White House in the previous November. This election will give insight into Wisconsin’s political tendencies, featuring pivotal races for a state Supreme Court seat, the superintendent of public instruction, and a constitutional amendment proposal mandating photo IDs for voting.
In a close contest, Trump narrowly defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, with a margin of merely 0.86%, the slimmest margin across any state. The highly contested 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race and Trump’s narrow victory might provide a glimpse into the forthcoming electoral strategies for statewide campaigns.
As Justice Ann Walsh Bradley steps down after a long tenure, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford faces off against Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel. Although official designations are nonpartisan, candidates typically draw support based on their legal philosophies. Crawford is supported by Democrats and progressives, buoyed by a recent endorsement from former President Barack Obama. Meanwhile, Schimel attracts Republican and conservative backers, with endorsements from figures like Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk.
Left-leaning jurists gained a 4-3 majority on the state’s high court in 2023, a shift seen after Janet Protasiewicz outmatched former Justice Dan Kelly. This election gives conservatives an opportunity to reclaim their majority, particularly amidst anticipated cases regarding abortion, union matters, and voting rights.
Moreover, Tuesday’s ballot also includes a race for the state superintendent of public instruction, pivotal in managing Wisconsin’s extensive public school network. The incumbent, Jill Underly, aims for a second term against Brittany Kinser, highlighted for founding an educational literacy initiative. While the superintendent office is deemed nonpartisan, Underly enjoys backing from the state’s Democrats and teachers’ unions, in contrast to Kinser’s Republican support.
Underly leads from a previous primary win, securing about 38% votes, while Kinser garnered 34%. A third candidate, primarily supported by Democrats, failed to progress with 27% in the primary. Underly’s prior election victory was marked with 58% against Deborah Kerr, a Republican-endorsed contender.
Within statewide elections, Wisconsin’s voting dynamic often sees Democrats gaining traction in populous Milwaukee and Dane counties, whereas Republicans hold sway over the state’s rural areas. GOP candidates count heavily on strength in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties of suburban Milwaukee to offset Democratic stronghold advantages.
Regarding vote calculus, in 2024, Harris captured majorities of 68% in Milwaukee and 75% in Dane but lost statewide. Comparatively, Protasiewicz managed 73% in Milwaukee and 82% in Dane during her triumph, surpassing by 11 percentage points. She made gains in usually Trump-aligned areas, including Brown County.
While the Associated Press abstains from projections, it only declares outcomes when trailing candidates have no feasible recovery path. If races remain undecided, AP continues coverage, including candidate statements, whilst clarifying the undecided status.
For Wisconsin, recounts are non-automatic but permitted within a percentage point difference. Races could be called if even recount opportunities show inadequate gap narrowing potential.
On Tuesday, Wisconsin’s spring election unfolds as polls close at 9 p.m. ET. Voters face crucial decisions on state Supreme Court roles, educational leadership, and photo-ID policies, amidst varied local ballots.
An engaged electorate, with over 3.8 million registered voters as of March 1, signifies a bustling political arena. Last year’s spring election saw a 51% voter turnout, and pre-Election Day ballots exceeded 475,000.
For election night timeline, AP’s quick reporting post-poll closure aligns with previous rapid result tabulations, reflecting timely and comprehensive vote counting.