On Tuesday, Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will conduct special elections to fill the vacancies left by Republican former U.S. Representatives Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. Traditionally considered Republican bastions, these districts have garnered attention as Democrats anticipate stronger competition than observed in the previous election a mere five months ago, thanks in part to robust fundraising efforts.
While these elections won’t affect the overall control of the U.S. House of Representatives, the outcomes could provide the Republican Party some respite in the tightly contested chamber. Presently, Republicans control 218 seats, which constitutes the minimum required for a majority in the fully occupied House, whereas Democrats hold 213 seats, with two seats left vacant following the departure of Democratic legislators.
In the race for the 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis will be squaring off against Democrat Gay Valimont. Patronis, who is Florida’s chief financial officer, was endorsed by former President Donald Trump during the highly competitive 10-candidate primary. Meanwhile, Valimont is a gun control advocate who previously challenged Gaetz in November, securing 34% of the vote.
For the 6th Congressional District, the contenders are Republican state Senator Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil. Fine represents a district in Brevard County, not within the U.S. House district boundaries he seeks to represent, and won a three-way primary with Trump’s backing. Weil, an educator in Osceola County’s public schools, represents the Democratic challengers.
The 1st Congressional District, located along Florida’s panhandle and bordered to the west by Alabama, encompasses critical military installations, including Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. Known as a Republican fortress, President Trump amassed 68% of its votes in 2024, slightly surpassing Gaetz, who garnered 66% during his reelection campaign. The four counties within this district have consistently favored Republican presidential candidates, with a solitary Democratic choice dating back to 1960. Conversely, Walton County is notably the most conservative, while Escambia, though slightly less Republican-leaning, still saw significant support for Trump and Gaetz in recent elections.
Spread across six counties on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the 6th Congressional District, which includes Daytona Beach, also has a history of backing Republican candidates in presidential races. Specifically, Lake County has voted Republican for presidential races since Franklin Roosevelt’s time in 1944. In 2024, Trump captured 65% of votes here, with Waltz achieving about 67% during his last successful reelection campaign, both peaking at roughly 74% in Putnam County while slightly less in Volusia County, although Waltz consistently surpassed Trump across the region.
Complications in Gaetz’s political trajectory arose following his resignation from Congress, prompted by an attorney general nomination, which he later withdrew amid federal scrutiny over a sex trafficking investigation and a related House Ethics probe. Meanwhile, Waltz vacated Congress in January to serve as a national security adviser. However, he recently made headlines for inadvertently adding a journalist to a sensitive discussion group concerning military tactics. Despite the incident, Republican voters in the upcoming election largely dismiss its significance.
The process of declaring election winners in Florida includes specific recount rules. The Associated Press refrains from making predictions and declares victors only when a definitive outcome is mathematically secured. In the event of close races triggering recounts, the AP’s declaration depends on whether a recount or legal challenge could potentially alter the result.
Looking ahead to the special election day, participants can expect polls to close at 7 p.m. local time in both the 1st District (8 p.m. ET) and the 6th District (7 p.m. ET). These elections encompass the U.S. House seats in question, along with state Senate and state House primaries in specific Florida areas, though the latter falls outside the AP’s election results coverage.
Eligible voters from these districts may partake in the elections, with the 1st District boasting around 566,000 active voters (55% Republican and 21% Democrat) and the 6th District comprising roughly 559,000 active voters (49% Republican and 26% Democrat). Previous January primaries saw Republican turnout at 17% in the 1st District and 15% in the 6th District, with Democrats largely circumvented. Patterns from the general election in 2024 report significantly higher voter engagement, with approximately 76% participation in the 1st District and about 80% in the 6th District, as a large portion of voters opted to cast their ballots before Election Day.
As of the recent reports, early voting indicates approximately 53,000 ballots cast in the 1st District, with Republicans making up 52% and Democrats 35%. Similarly, the 6th District reflects around 71,000 votes, split between 45% Republican and 40% Democrat castings. Timelines for counting and reporting results suggest an efficient process, historically concluding shortly after poll closures with high vote percentage tallies by late evening. The anticipated improved competitiveness in these traditionally Republican domains introduces a dynamic layer to Tuesday’s electoral landscape.