In Indianapolis, basketball enthusiasts have become accustomed to at least one unexpected underdog making a memorable run during the NCAA Tournament nearly every year. However, that hasn’t been the case this time around.
For the first time since 1985, when the NCAA tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams, all 16 regional semifinalists hail from power conferences. This shift in the tournament’s landscape may be attributed to the transfer portal, which some speculate has concentrated elite talent at prominent schools. These institutions often offer lucrative name, image, and likeness (NIL) deals, possibly supplemented by revenue sharing in the near future.
Purdue’s head coach, Matt Painter, whose team in 2023 experienced an unexpected loss as a top seed to a 16-seed team, hopes this lack of underdog stories doesn’t become the norm. “The value of upsets to the general audience is a critical aspect of March Madness,” Painter emphasized, highlighting the essence of the tournament’s appeal.
Tommy Lloyd from Arizona echoed Painter’s sentiment, saying it’s still too early to determine whether the absence of giant slayers is a result of NIL dynamics, or simply a coincidence. Rutgers’ coach argued that this year’s results don’t definitively spell the end of Cinderella stories.
In recent years, fans witnessed lower-seeded teams making surprising runs; for instance, Oral Roberts advanced in 2021, Saint Peter’s dazzled in 2022, and Princeton grabbed the spotlight in 2023. Such narratives have been noticeably absent this year, with a record number of teams from major conferences entering the Sweet 16.
Nevertheless, some lower-seeded teams have still managed to create March Madness moments. McNeese State, a 12-seed, upset Clemson, while Drake defeated Missouri with a team largely comprised of Division II transfers. Similarly, 15-seed Robert Morris gave Alabama a tough contest.
Kentucky’s Mark Pope lauded the unpredictability and drama of March, asserting that the diverse talent pool among players and coaches ensures that surprises persist. “Once the games begin, resources become irrelevant,” Pope explained, emphasizing the egalitarian nature of competition.
Amidst this backdrop, BYU’s coach discussed the growing challenges for mid-major programs. In the current environment, players can transition to larger schools with attractive offers, tempting them to reconsider their affiliations. With noteworthy examples of athletes who began at non-major programs before excelling elsewhere, schools like Auburn and Florida have benefited from increased transfers.
Reflecting on his own journey from a mid-major setting to a powerhouse program, Nate Oats noted that maintaining a stable roster in today’s climate poses a formidable challenge. However, he also pointed out that as power-conference teams rely less on high school recruits, mid-majors will have opportunities to secure top young talent.
Ultimately, while the path for mid-major Cinderella stories might be more challenging, Oats remains optimistic. “There’s no shortage of promising freshmen ending up at mid-major programs,” Oats noted. Such schools must excel in identifying talent, although the environment may require heightened strategy. Despite these changes, the enduring essence of March Madness assures that unexpected developments will continue to captivate fans.