WASHINGTON — U.S. cities facing the greatest impact from a trade conflict with Canada are primarily located in states that played a significant role in Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. This reveals the potential political risks associated with his tariff strategy.
According to a recent analysis conducted by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, San Antonio and Detroit are the most reliant on Canadian exports out of 41 U.S. metropolitan areas. The analysis underscores the potential harm that could arise from the 25% tariffs levied by the United States on Canadian goods and Canada’s possible retaliatory measures, especially in politically pivotal U.S. states.
Before President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on imported cars and parts starting April 3, this analysis was compiled to shed light on the situation. Candace Laing, President and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, expressed concerns about the broader impacts of the tariff dispute, warning that it poses risks not only to Canada but also to the U.S. “Escalating this damaging tariff war will affect both countries, potentially costing North America its position as an auto industry leader by encouraging companies to relocate elsewhere,” Laing stated. “The tax increase jeopardizes plants and jobs for the long term.”
A significant portion of exports from San Antonio, particularly in sectors like aerospace, automotive, and energy, is sent to Canada. Similarly, approximately 40% of exports from the Detroit area, driven by the auto industry, are destined for Canada. Trump’s victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were essential to his overall success in the recent presidential election. Both Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are among the top 10 U.S. cities most vulnerable to a trade dispute with Canada.
Other cities heavily reliant on Canadian exports include Kansas City, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; Nashville, Tennessee; Columbus, Ohio; Chicago; and Cleveland. Save for Illinois, these states favored Trump in the last election.
The President also imposed 25% tariffs on numerous goods from Mexico and Canada, while a reduced 10% tariff targets energy products from Canada. Some of these tariffs have been delayed or suspended but are planned for full implementation in April.
While Canadian authorities have cautioned that the U.S. might face increased prices, job losses, and slower economic growth due to the trade conflict, a Brookings Institution analysis suggests that Mexico and Canada would endure even greater economic strain. These nations rely more significantly on trade with the United States.
President Trump has justified the tariffs as measures to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. He also expressed dissatisfaction with trade deficits involving these countries and provocatively suggested that Canada might become the 51st U.S. state.