Wisconsin is gearing up for a Supreme Court race that is poised to shatter records as the most costly judicial election in U.S. history. With the April 1 contest between liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, millions of dollars are pouring in from external contributors, including a significant amount from billionaire Elon Musk. Musk is at the forefront of efforts to drastically reduce the size of the federal government, making this an election of notable importance.
The race marks the first major election since Donald Trump returned to the White House, effectively making it an early gauge of public sentiment toward his second term. It will test the political temperatures of Wisconsin, a crucial swing state, and measure the zeal of both Democrats and Republicans as they prepare for a series of consequential elections.
What exactly is at stake here?
The election on April 1 will influence whether liberals maintain their hold over Wisconsin’s highest court, which is set to preside over numerous significant cases. Among these is a debate over the legitimacy of an 1849 law that would essentially criminalize abortion. Additionally, the court will address issues pertaining to public sector unions and voting regulations.
Given Wisconsin’s status as a battleground state, the outcome of this Supreme Court race could significantly impact the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. Any challenges to the state’s congressional maps might redefine the balance of power considerably in Washington.
On a broader scale, this race is an early assessment of Democratic enthusiasm preceding the midterms, as well as an indicator of Republican strength in the absence of Trump on the ballot. The race is serving as a strategic preview for both parties. Republicans are rallying around Trump and his policies, whereas Democrats are seeking to frame the contest as a referendum on Musk, who is reportedly unpopular among Wisconsin voters.
How much funding has been invested?
A staggering sum exceeding $73 million has already been invested in the race, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal watchdog group. This surpasses the preceding record set in 2023, when candidates and aligned organizations spent over $51 million in a Wisconsin Supreme Court election that was widely perceived as a referendum on abortion rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Elon Musk is the leading financial contributor, with his affiliated groups pouring over $14 million into promoting Schimel’s campaign. Musk further bolstered the Wisconsin Republican Party with a $2 million donation on Thursday. Receptively, the party funneled $1.2 million to Schimel’s campaign.
Crawford, on the other hand, has secured substantial backing from other billionaires, including philanthropist George Soros and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
What are the strategies for both sides?
Schimel’s supporters, aligned with the Republican establishment, have made the election a focal point for continued support of President Trump’s policies. They argue that a victory would ensure Trump’s agenda advances and counteract liberal judges who they accuse of obstructing his initiatives. Campaign materials from Musk’s America PAC spotlight photographs of Trump and plead with voters, suggesting that their electoral support is crucial for Trump’s success.
Schimel’s campaign has actively engaged with the Trump administration. He received an endorsement from the former president and appeared with Trump’s eldest son at a recent rally aimed at mobilizing voters.
Conversely, the Democrats are channeling their voter’s frustrations, presenting this race as a stand against Musk’s influential role. Crawford has been vocal about Musk’s influence in debates, branding Schimel as “Elon Schimel” and expressing that the court’s independence is under threat. The Wisconsin Democratic Party has championed the cause with events titled “The People v. Musk,” engaging voters at town halls with anti-Musk messaging.
Who is expected to win?
The outcome remains uncertain, with analysts and both parties acknowledging a tightly contested race that hinges on voter turnout. Wisconsin is known for its close races, evidenced by Trump’s narrow victory margin of less than 1 percentage point, or about 30,000 votes. However, in 2023, the liberal candidate won, breaking a 15-year conservative hold on the court.
Wisconsin’s evenly split political environment means that either side could clinch victory, making effective voter mobilization more crucial than ever.
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