In Istanbul, the recent incarceration of the city’s opposition mayor has unfolded amidst a complex geopolitical unrest that analysts suggest has empowered President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to incapacitate a formidable adversary. Recently arrested in a coordinated dawn operation, Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s mayor, was detained at his official residence. Following his arrest, a court mandated his detention pending trial over corruption charges including unfair bidding practices and alleged bribery. Additionally, he is confronted with terror-related allegations.
As the leader of Turkey’s economic and cultural hub, boasting a population of 16 million, Imamoglu holds substantial political influence, second only to President Erdogan. Observers indicate that the combination of prevailing international elements has opened a strategic window for Erdogan to eliminate his most considerable political threat in the forthcoming elections, potentially set for 2028 but possibly occurring earlier.
Monica Marks, a Middle East studies professor, stated that a distinct confluence of international circumstances has seemingly made Erdogan’s actions more feasible, with minimal risk of international backlash. Imamoglu’s arrest came as a surprise last Wednesday, despite earlier legal pursuits against other district mayors from his political party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Since a failed coup attempt against Erdogan’s administration in 2016, Turkey’s judiciary has intensified its scrutiny on opposition parties, often leveraging allegations of graft or associations with Kurdish militants to undermine political rivals. The government maintains that Turkey’s judicial system operates independently and refutes any assertions that legal actions against opposition members are driven by politics.
Turkey’s geopolitical leverage is significant in multiple areas. Due to Turkey’s military capability, such as wielding NATO’s second-largest army and advanced defense technology like drones, the European Union faces a constrained position in critiquing Turkey’s democratic regressions. Turkey’s strategic role in mediating peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine further enhances its regional influence.
Moreover, Turkey’s backing for Syrian rebels, leading to the Assad regime’s collapse, along with its pivotal role in curbing migrant flow to Europe under a 2016 agreement, fortifies its geopolitical clout with Europe. These elements culminate in Turkey’s growing relevance to European affairs.
Domestically, the timing of Imamoglu’s incarceration is driven by Turkey’s internal political dynamics. The decision by the CHP to endorse Imamoglu as its presidential candidate for 2028 was instrumental in prompting his arrest, according to Berk Esen, from Istanbul’s Sabanci University. Imamoglu emerged as the CHP’s candidate through primaries that coincided with his arrest.
Another domestic element beneficial to Erdogan is the ongoing tentative peace dialogues with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an insurgent group listed as a terrorist entity by Turkey and many Western countries. Such a diplomatic effort potentially aims to recruit Turkey’s pro-Kurdish parties into supporting Erdogan, simultaneously dividing support within the opposition parties.
Imamoglu has posed a substantial challenge to Erdogan’s extensive two-decade-long presidency since his 2019 election as Istanbul’s mayor. He has maintained a stance against Erdogan in recent public opinion surveys and represents the enduring strength of Turkish opposition, often described as the “last bastion.” In recent times, Imamoglu has faced various legal challenges, including a recent nullification of his academic degree, which renders him ineligible for presidential candidacy.
Nevertheless, the decision to incarcerate him presents significant political risks due to potential public discontent expressed in mass protests across Turkey. Selim Koru, a political analyst, suggests that transforming Imamoglu from a plausible presidential candidate into a disgraced figure aligns with Erdogan’s enduring strategy to consolidate power before the upcoming elections and neutralize political threats.
Marks expressed concern, indicating that Imamoglu’s arrest could signify Turkey’s political trajectory toward a more authoritarian regime, marking a significant point in Turkey’s political evolution towards full dictatorship.