In Istanbul, the recent incarceration of the cityโs opposition mayor has unfolded amidst a complex geopolitical unrest that analysts suggest has empowered President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to incapacitate a formidable adversary. Recently arrested in a coordinated dawn operation, Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbulโs mayor, was detained at his official residence. Following his arrest, a court mandated his detention pending trial over corruption charges including unfair bidding practices and alleged bribery. Additionally, he is confronted with terror-related allegations.
As the leader of Turkeyโs economic and cultural hub, boasting a population of 16 million, Imamoglu holds substantial political influence, second only to President Erdogan. Observers indicate that the combination of prevailing international elements has opened a strategic window for Erdogan to eliminate his most considerable political threat in the forthcoming elections, potentially set for 2028 but possibly occurring earlier.
Monica Marks, a Middle East studies professor, stated that a distinct confluence of international circumstances has seemingly made Erdoganโs actions more feasible, with minimal risk of international backlash. Imamogluโs arrest came as a surprise last Wednesday, despite earlier legal pursuits against other district mayors from his political party, the Republican Peopleโs Party (CHP).
Since a failed coup attempt against Erdoganโs administration in 2016, Turkeyโs judiciary has intensified its scrutiny on opposition parties, often leveraging allegations of graft or associations with Kurdish militants to undermine political rivals. The government maintains that Turkeyโs judicial system operates independently and refutes any assertions that legal actions against opposition members are driven by politics.
Turkeyโs geopolitical leverage is significant in multiple areas. Due to Turkeyโs military capability, such as wielding NATOโs second-largest army and advanced defense technology like drones, the European Union faces a constrained position in critiquing Turkeyโs democratic regressions. Turkeyโs strategic role in mediating peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine further enhances its regional influence.
Moreover, Turkeyโs backing for Syrian rebels, leading to the Assad regimeโs collapse, along with its pivotal role in curbing migrant flow to Europe under a 2016 agreement, fortifies its geopolitical clout with Europe. These elements culminate in Turkeyโs growing relevance to European affairs.
Domestically, the timing of Imamogluโs incarceration is driven by Turkeyโs internal political dynamics. The decision by the CHP to endorse Imamoglu as its presidential candidate for 2028 was instrumental in prompting his arrest, according to Berk Esen, from Istanbulโs Sabanci University. Imamoglu emerged as the CHPโs candidate through primaries that coincided with his arrest.
Another domestic element beneficial to Erdogan is the ongoing tentative peace dialogues with the Kurdistan Workersโ Party (PKK), an insurgent group listed as a terrorist entity by Turkey and many Western countries. Such a diplomatic effort potentially aims to recruit Turkeyโs pro-Kurdish parties into supporting Erdogan, simultaneously dividing support within the opposition parties.
Imamoglu has posed a substantial challenge to Erdoganโs extensive two-decade-long presidency since his 2019 election as Istanbulโs mayor. He has maintained a stance against Erdogan in recent public opinion surveys and represents the enduring strength of Turkish opposition, often described as the โlast bastion.โ In recent times, Imamoglu has faced various legal challenges, including a recent nullification of his academic degree, which renders him ineligible for presidential candidacy.
Nevertheless, the decision to incarcerate him presents significant political risks due to potential public discontent expressed in mass protests across Turkey. Selim Koru, a political analyst, suggests that transforming Imamoglu from a plausible presidential candidate into a disgraced figure aligns with Erdoganโs enduring strategy to consolidate power before the upcoming elections and neutralize political threats.
Marks expressed concern, indicating that Imamogluโs arrest could signify Turkeyโs political trajectory toward a more authoritarian regime, marking a significant point in Turkeyโs political evolution towards full dictatorship.