The measles outbreak in West Texas continues to escalate, with cases still increasing even two months after the situation first emerged. Public health officials in the area anticipate that the virus will persist in spreading for several more months, suggesting that the reported number of cases may be underestimated.
Nevertheless, there is a positive development: an increase in the number of people receiving measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccinations this year in both Texas and New Mexico, which is also experiencing an outbreak. Though not reaching desired levels, this increase is still significant. Pharmacies across the United States are observing a greater demand for MMR vaccinations, particularly in Texas.
Currently, there have been 309 reported cases of measles in Texas, resulting in one death related to the disease. In New Mexico, the outbreak has reached 42 cases and another measles-related death. Across the two states, 42 individuals have required hospitalization due to the virus.
The outbreak in Texas has predominantly affected undervaccinated Mennonite communities and might persist for up to a year. Historical data regarding how measles spread in Amish communities in the U.S. indicates that past outbreaks endured for six to seven months. Katherine Wells, director of the public health department in Lubbock, Texas, mentions that Lubbock’s hospitals are treating most patients affected by the outbreak, with the department actively participating in response efforts.
Wells elaborated, “Considering the rural location and multi-state impact, it will demand extensive efforts on the ground to manage and control the situation,” and emphasized that it is not limited to an isolated population.
This outbreak spans 14 counties in Texas and two in New Mexico, with four probable cases identified in Oklahoma. Health officials in Oklahoma indicated that their first two cases were connected to those in West Texas and New Mexico.
Due to its highly contagious nature, measles presents considerable challenges in containment, as outbreaks often exhibit multiple peaks according to Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina. The virus can spread unknowingly for days before symptoms appear and linger in the air for significant periods after an infected individual leaves a room.
Within the affected communities, it might take several months for the outbreak to subside. However, if the virus infiltrates other communities, it could potentially restart the cycle.
Should the outbreak persist through January of the next year, it might compromise the United States’ status of having eliminated measles. Maintaining this status requires 12 months without local transmission, noted Dr. William Moss, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University.
Moss asserted, “With a robust response and clear messaging emphasizing measles vaccination as the key solution, I doubt the outbreak would extend beyond 12 months.” However, this type of response is lacking, especially from the federal government.
In contrast, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has cast doubt on the MMR vaccine, despite its proven safety and 97% effectiveness after two doses. Recent statements from Kennedy suggested adverse effects, although he later revised his position to advocate for vaccinations.
There are indications that the outbreak is influencing vaccination rates positively, especially locally. During a specified period this year, New Mexico’s Department of Health reported an increase in the administration of measles vaccines, tallying over 11,600 doses compared to 6,500 the previous year. Southeast New Mexico accounted for a substantial portion of these vaccinations.
In Texas, from January 1 to mid-March, at least 173,000 doses were administered, an increase from the previous year’s count in the same timeframe. This included numerous vaccinations conducted by public health in the West Texas outbreak region.
However, the Texas Department of State Health Services notes that only those opting into the immunization registry are recorded, potentially underrepresenting the actual uptake. There is a possibility that more individuals are either opting in or genuinely seeking more vaccinations.
Retailers like Walgreens and CVS are experiencing heightened demand for MMR vaccines, particularly in outbreak-affected regions. Texas health officials aim to improve vaccination rates, especially in affected areas such as Gaines County, where the childhood vaccination rate of 82% is below the 95% threshold necessary to prevent community transmission.
In Gaines County’s largest town, Seminole, Prasad Ganji, a pharmacist, ordered a supply of the MMR vaccine as cases rose. However, despite the need, vaccination uptake remains challenging, with several doses still available.
“There are definitely struggles around vaccine uptake in places like Gaines County,” Wells observed, expressing a commitment to transparency about these challenges.