Western officials have accused Russia and its allies of orchestrating numerous attacks and other disruptive incidents across Europe since the Ukraine invasion began three years ago. These incidents are perceived as part of President Vladimir Putin’s campaign to create discord within European societies and undermine support for Ukraine.
Reports document 59 cases where European authorities held Russia, Russian-linked groups, or Belarus accountable for various acts, such as cyberattacks, propagation of disinformation, assassination plots, and numerous forms of sabotage, including vandalism and espionage, since the February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
These incidents encompass a wide variety of actions, from stuffing car exhausts with expanding foam in Germany to elaborate plots to plant explosives on cargo planes. Additional activities include setting fires in shops and museums, conducting cyber-hacks against politicians and critical infrastructure, and espionage activities detected in the UK.
Recently, the chief of Britain’s foreign intelligence agency described the ongoing activities as a “staggeringly reckless campaign.” Nevertheless, it remains difficult to conclusively prove Russia’s involvement, and Kremlin representatives have denied leading any sabotage initiatives against Western countries. Despite this, several governments have publicly attributed these acts to Russian operations.
According to James Appathurai, the NATO official managing responses to such threats, the disruption serves dual purposes: creating political turmoil within targeted nations and diminishing their support for Ukraine. Appathurai, who holds the role of deputy assistant secretary-general for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber, emphasized these points during discussions.
An extensive investigation involved consultations with 15 onsite officials, including two prime ministers, representatives from five European intelligence services, and three defense ministries, in addition to NATO officials and subject matter experts. The investigation mapped these incidents to illustrate the breadth of the alleged campaign — a concerning factor when coupled with wavering U.S. support for Ukraine and uncertainties within European allies regarding Washington’s long-term reliability.
The incidents vary widely yet notably cluster in nations strongly allied with Ukraine. Some incidents carried the potential for mass casualties, evidenced when explosive packages were discovered in Germany and the UK; Western officials suspect these were part of a Russian intelligence plot targeting cargo planes bound for the U.S. and Canada.
Further findings include a thwarted assassination plot targeting a key executive from a German arms manufacturer supplying Ukraine with weapons. Additionally, investigations are ongoing into infrastructure damage beneath the Baltic Sea, including a crucial power cable connecting Estonia and Finland.
Finnish authorities recently detained a ship, reportedly part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” amidst these disturbances. On land, deceptive claims on a fake French Defense Ministry website and pre-election tampering with vehicle exhausts in Germany showcase the breadth of the campaign.
Accusations from officials in Estonia, Poland, Latvia, and Finland emphasize Belarus and Russia directing migrants toward their borders. The Kremlin continues to deny involvement, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisting no proof substantiates these accusations.
How the documentation was achieved: The investigation scoured publicly available reports and information on incidents tied to Russia since the invasion. The documented cases in the report were those directly linked to Russia or its supporters by officials or credible entities.
Despite numerous charges and convictions, in several cases, the culprits have not been publicly identified or held accountable. Rather than traditional invasions, Moscow has opted for a “bolder” approach since the Ukrainian conflict began, implementing sabotage and arson alongside established stratagems, such as assassinations and digital warfare.
While other nations, notably China, have also faced accusations of espionage and cyber activities, experts highlight that Russia is overwhelmingly active in Europe. Successful deterrence of these hybrid threats requires coordinated intelligence-sharing, despite existing challenges within alliances like NATO.
With the U.S. questioning its NATO role, effective responses remain essential. Recent investigative focus on suspected sabotage within the Baltic Sea has prompted NATO to launch missions to fortify critical infrastructure.
Cooperative efforts are deemed vital to addressing these threats effectively, ensuring stability among Western allies in the face of ongoing challenges.
