In the ongoing conflict in Sudan, significant developments suggest a potential turning point in nearly two years of devastating warfare. This prolonged conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions, exacerbating a crisis that has plunged parts of the nation into severe hunger.
Recently, the Sudanese military has made considerable progress against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, claiming control over the capital, Khartoum, including the historically significant Republican Palace. This building is traditionally the location of the country’s government and presidential office. While a political figure associated with the RSF acknowledged the setback, the RSF insists they still maintain a presence in the vicinity and continue to resist.
The conflict began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the Sudanese military and the RSF. Initially, the leaders of these forces had joined hands following a popular uprising in 2019, pledging to guide the nation towards democracy. However, rather than supporting civilian governance, they increasingly opposed it, sparking violent clashes for dominance. Since then, the death toll has escalated, and millions have been forced from their homes, with the country facing dire food shortages.
Despite the military’s strategic gains in Khartoum, this might not mark the end of the conflict but rather shift it into a new phase. Sudan might effectively become partitioned, with separate zones controlled by military and RSF forces. Military leader General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and RSF commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo have both shown little inclination towards meaningful peace negotiations.
The RSF still dominates much of western Sudan, particularly the Darfur region, and controls key locations such as the Khartoum International Airport, which it has held since the conflict’s inception. These successes in Khartoum could potentially test the fragile alliances within the military’s coalition, which includes historically rival armed factions brought together by a common opposition to the RSF.
In February, the RSF and its allies signed a charter in Nairobi proposing the creation of a parallel government, signaling further division within Sudan. Meanwhile, General Burhan has spoken about forming a transitional government, suggesting competing administrations could emerge, intensifying the country’s de facto split.
The RSF’s charter advocates for a “secular, democratic, and decentralized state,” emphasizing Sudan’s diverse communities seeking independence from Khartoum’s authority. The RSF has its origins in the Janjaweed militias, previously mobilized by Omar al-Bashir’s regime against Darfurian groups perceived as ethnically distinct. This historical association has led to allegations of grave human rights abuses.
Currently, both the RSF and the military face accusations of committing atrocities. Recently, the U.S. administration imposed sanctions on Dagalo, alleging that the RSF was part of a genocidal campaign. The RSF denies these claims of genocide, while the military denies similar allegations of misconduct.