In a significant move towards potential peace in the long-standing Russia-Ukraine conflict, senior military officials from over 30 countries convened in England to develop strategies for an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine. This gathering comes as discussions surrounding a partial ceasefire advance. The coalition, spearheaded by the United Kingdom and France, is transitioning into what is being described as an “operational phase.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed cautious optimism about the progress, stating that though a peace agreement remains uncertain, the groundwork being laid now is crucial for any future developments. He emphasized the necessity of pre-emptive planning, stressing that any agreement without substantial preparation risks violation by Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a parallel meeting in Paris, which will include Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This meeting underscores the collaborative international efforts to address the escalating crisis. Recently, a preliminary agreement between Ukraine and Russia suggested a limited ceasefire, influenced by discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and the two conflicting nations. However, the specifics of this ceasefire, including its implementation and the extent of targets restricted from attack, remain under negotiation.
During remarks in Norway, Zelenskyy noted his initial pursuit of an extensive ceasefire, and his commitment to working with the United States to shield critical infrastructure from strikes. He highlighted discussions with President Trump to ensure mutual understanding of civilian infrastructure demarcations.
Despite the hopeful negotiations, the ongoing violence persists, with both Ukraine and Russia experiencing significant drone attacks. One such assault struck Kropyvnytskyi, marking its most severe attack amid the current conflict. Approximately four dozen drones caused injuries to 14 individuals and considerable property damage, exacerbating local tensions. Concurrently, in Russia’s Saratov region, the largest drone attack it has faced damaged public facilities and private residences, focusing on the industrial city of Engels.
As the conflict prolongs, casualty figures continue to illustrate the severe human toll. The UK Defense Ministry disclosed that Russian forces have sustained 900,000 casualties, with up to 250,000 fatalities, since the onset of the invasion three years ago. While varying estimates from Western sources exist, independent verification remains elusive. Similarly, Ukrainian military losses have been difficult to confirm, though Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously suggested heavy casualties among his forces.
The prospect of peacekeeping forces entering Ukraine remains contentious, particularly in terms of troop numbers. Estimates suggest between 10,000 to 30,000 soldiers for what is being termed a “reassurance force.” Among the participating nations, only Britain and France have committed, with other countries like Australia and Canada considering support roles. However, Russia has explicitly rejected the presence of NATO forces within Ukrainian borders, adding complexity to the planning.
Discussions at the military meeting, involving representatives from 31 countries, focused on multiple domains—sea, air, land, and border security—as well as reconstruction efforts. The operational framework for these potential peacekeeping forces is yet to be solidified. Jack Watling of RUSI, a military think-tank, suggested that such forces would serve to deter further Russian aggression by introducing the possibility of engaging with European military power.
In the broader geopolitical context, European Union leaders plan to assess Ukraine’s security requirements while discussing increased defense spending amidst shifting U.S. security policies. Germany’s parliament is deliberating an additional 3 billion euros in military support for Ukraine, reflecting a broader trend of increased European military expenditures.
Amid enhanced military fortifications and diplomatic endeavors, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov critiqued Europe’s militarization stance, contending it contradicts ongoing peace negotiations. Inside Kyiv, public sentiment varies widely; while some residents express cautious hope for peace, others remain skeptical about Russia’s commitment to any accord, citing historical breaches of assurances. These complex layers of diplomacy and defense measures reflect the nuanced and often fragile path to potential peace in Ukraine.
