In both Canada and Europe, a debate is simmering over the long-term wisdom of heavily investing in U.S. military technology, particularly high-priced equipment like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. These hesitations arise amidst shifts in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump, whose recent actions have challenged the traditional pillars of Western defense strategy.
The uncertainty stems from Trump’s approach, which has left NATO allies questioning U.S. commitment to their defense should conflicts with countries like Russia arise. Furthermore, Trump’s outreach toward Moscow and suspension of much foreign aid has created an atmosphere of unpredictability concerning future U.S.-European relations. This could potentially impact the foreign sales of advanced American fighter jets such as the Lockheed Martin-made F-35 and the older F-16 models, especially among NATO’s Eastern European members who still rely on Soviet-era arms.
There has been a concerted effort within NATO to transition these nations to more modern Western equipment like the F-16 and F-35, aligning their capabilities with the rest of the alliance. However, with shifting U.S. policy, some nations within NATO are reconsidering their reliance on American defense systems, looking instead at European alternatives. Reflecting this trend, the European Union recently initiated a campaign aiming to reduce its defense dependence on the U.S., encouraging its 27 member states to procure more defense equipment internally rather than from U.S. suppliers, who currently dominate the market.
In Canada, the government is re-evaluating its decision to purchase the F-35 jets, following Trump’s more aggressive trade stance. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has tasked Defense Minister Bill Blair to explore additional options in light of these developments. Canada has also opted to acquire a radar system from Australia, a purchase worth billions that reportedly has a less intrusive footprint compared to its American counterpart.
Similarly, Portugal is considering revisiting its procurement strategy, pondering alternatives to the F-35s as it seeks to replace its current fleet of F-16s. Meanwhile, the Netherlands and Norway have maintained their commitment to the F-35 program, showcasing diverging strategies among European nations.
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, renowned for its fusion of stealth, agility, and attack capabilities, is one of the most technologically advanced and expensive systems ever developed by the U.S., with costs soaring to potentially $1.7 trillion over its lifetime. The success of this program has been partly dependent on international sales, but Trump’s policies may be influencing countries to reconsider future purchases.
There are concerns speculating about the presence of a “kill switch” embedded in the F-35’s software, which could theoretically allow the U.S. to disable the systems remotely. While the Pentagon’s F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office has dismissed this notion, doubts linger about the program’s vulnerability to U.S.-imposed restrictions in a hypothetical diplomatic fallout.
Should countries opt to abandon their planned acquisitions of the F-35, European jets like the Saab Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Dassault Rafale might see an upswing in demand, despite lacking the F-35’s advanced stealth features. Each European aircraft has its own merits, offering potentially cheaper or more regionally integrated options for military forces.
David Jordan from King’s College London speculates that Europe might take this opportunity to foster its own defense capabilities. Creating a fully-fledged European defense industry would require significant cooperation and investment in joint research and logistics, yet could feasibly become a reality within a decade.
As the dynamics of international defense cooperation shift, Europe faces the challenge—and perhaps the necessity—of crafting a more autonomous military future, potentially reducing its historical reliance on the United States.