In both Europe and Canada, there is growing scrutiny over the wisdom of investing in high-cost U.S. military assets, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Political developments over the past few months have stirred concerns about NATO’s security commitments and the reliability of the United States under President Donald Trump. As a result, foreign sales of advanced U.S. jets, particularly the Lockheed Martin-produced F-35, might be influenced amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Eastern European members of NATO, who still possess substantial inventories of Soviet-era weaponry incompatible with Western arms, have been urged to align with common defense standards. The strategic initiative aims to replace outdated Soviet jets with Western models like the F-16 and F-35 to streamline NATO’s military capabilities. Nevertheless, some NATO nations are revisiting their defense strategies and considering diversifying their military ties to include European-built aircraft.
In Canada, sentiments are shifting as Trump has posed economic threats, which has led to a review of Canada’s involvement with the F-35 program. Prime Minister Mark Carney has tasked Defense Minister Bill Blair with reassessing the F-35 acquisition, urging him to explore alternative options in light of new geopolitical dynamics. Moreover, Canada has committed C$6 billion to acquire an Australian radar system with a smaller operational footprint compared to its American counterpart.
Portugal, another NATO member, is reconsidering its defense acquisitions due to recent developments in Washington’s foreign policy. The country’s contemplation of alternatives to the F-35 aligns with a broader regional reevaluation of defense ties.
Winslow T. Wheeler, a seasoned defense analyst, notes that purchasing the F-35 is as much about forging a strategic alliance with the U.S. as it is about acquiring the aircraft itself. He argues that the value of maintaining an alliance with the U.S. has historically outweighed the simpler transactional nature of such deals.
Despite differing opinions among NATO countries, with some nations like the Netherlands and Norway backing the F-35 program, skepticism remains. Concerns about potential embedded “kill switches” in the F-35 software have been vehemently denied by the Pentagon’s F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office. Nonetheless, apprehensions persist about how strategic relationships might fare should diplomatic ties with the U.S. become strained.
If international partners opt against the F-35, potential beneficiaries include European-built aircraft such as the Saab Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Dassault Rafale. While lacking the stealth features of the F-35, these contenders present viable options for countries aiming to diversify their defense procurements.
David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King’s College London, suggests that Europe might pivot towards dependence on its own defense industrial base if U.S. commitments waver. However, this would necessitate considerable investment in research, development, and production capabilities—historically a challenging prospect due to national priorities.
French President Emmanuel Macron is already advocating for European allies to choose home-grown defense solutions, including the Dassault Rafale, which may garner economic and strategic support across the region. This shift could impact U.S. defense companies like Lockheed Martin, which could face significant revenue losses if European nations minimize their reliance on American defense equipment.
The White House has not commented on these developments, which reflect the precarious state of current transatlantic defense relationships.
