NEW YORK — There was a modest increase in U.S. births last year, but this is unlikely to signify a reversal of the longstanding decline in birth rates. Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicate that over 3.6 million births were recorded in 2024, marking an increase of 22,250 from the finalized count for 2023 released earlier this week. Experts suggest that while the total births for 2024 may increase slightly once final numbers are confirmed, the overall birth rate has only increased among Hispanic women.
The slight rise, just under 1%, is viewed as a minor fluctuation within a persistent downward trend, according to Hans-Peter Kohler, a University of Pennsylvania sociologist specializing in family demographics. Kohler emphasizes the need for further investigation to fully understand last year’s birth pattern changes, cautioning against interpreting this increase as a trend reversal in the declining U.S. fertility rate.
U.S. births and birth rates have declined consistently for years, particularly following the 2008-09 recession, with a temporary spike in 2014. A notable drop occurred in 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by increases in the subsequent two years, which experts largely credit to delayed pregnancies due to the pandemic. In 2023, births decreased by 2%, bringing the total below 3.6 million, the lowest annual figure since 1979. Vermont recorded the lowest birth rate, whereas Utah had the highest, as detailed in an 86-page report on 2023 birth data released Tuesday.
The report, based on comprehensive birth certificates analysis from that year, indicates a continued rise in the average age for first-time mothers, reaching 27 1/2 years, up from 21 1/2 in the early 1970s. Although birth rates have generally fallen for younger women and teenagers, they were previously rising among women in their 30s and 40s, reflecting a broader trend of women pursuing higher education and careers before starting families. However, in 2023, birth rates declined across nearly all age groups, including women in their early 40s.
Preliminary figures for 2024 reflect ongoing declines among teenagers and women in their early 20s but show birth rate increases for women in their late 20s, driven by a hike in Hispanic births. There were also increases for women in their 30s, partly due to rises in births among Hispanic and white women, and among women in their 40s, influenced by an increase among white women.
According to Dr. John Santelli, a Columbia University family health expert, the rise in Hispanic births can likely be attributed to immigrant mothers and a robust economy in 2024, which might have bolstered the statistics. However, Santelli notes that these changes are minor and unlikely to alter long-term birth trends significantly.
