In a sudden escalation, the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has crumbled as Israel launched numerous attacks across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday. According to Palestinian medical officials, more than 400 individuals, mainly women and children, have been killed. Israel declared the operation as open-ended with anticipations for its expansion, stirring fears of a full resurgence in the 17-month-old conflict.
The ceasefire had been a three-phase plan initiated in mid-January, although its first phase technically concluded two weeks prior to the latest violence. Israel expressed hesitation to engage in substantive negotiations for the second phase, which aimed for a long-lasting ceasefire, complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of all hostages captured by Hamas during the October 7, 2023, attack. The ongoing ceasefire was supposed to hold as long as negotiations for the second phase continued, brokered by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.
During the first phase, Hamas returned 25 living hostages and the remains of eight additional individuals in return for the release of approximately 1,800 Palestinian prisoners. Meanwhile, Israeli forces pulled back to buffer zones within Gaza, enabling hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return to northern regions. However, anticipation for further hostage exchanges was absent from the agreement at this juncture.
The situation worsened when Israel halted the entry of food, medicine, fuel, electricity, and other supplies two weeks ago, affecting nearly 2 million residents of Gaza in an effort to pressure Hamas into accepting a new proposal. This proposal demanded Hamas release half of its remaining hostages as a condition for extending the ceasefire and agreeing to negotiate a permanent truce, without offering further releases of Palestinian prisoners — a significant aspect of the initial deal. Hamas declined the new offer, accusing Israel of undermining the existing consensus.
The ceasefire’s collapse now appears imminent unless mediators intervene, potentially reigniting a conflict that has already resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties and substantial destruction in Gaza. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, previously threatening to resume hostilities, stated that Hamas’s refusal of the proposal prompted his decision to launch strikes and declared increased military action against the group. The White House, informed beforehand, expressed support for Israel’s actions.
Hamas condemned Netanyahu for disrupting the ceasefire agreement, stating that it exposed remaining hostages to uncertain outcomes and urged mediators to hold Israel accountable. Notably, this escalation coincided with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a period that experienced relative peace since January 19, despite occasional Israeli strikes on suspected militants in violation of the truce.
Domestically, Netanyahu faces significant pressure over his management of the hostage situation and his recent dismissal of Israel’s internal security agency chief. Hostage families have voiced frustration over the termination of efforts to retrieve their loved ones from Hamas captivity. Meanwhile, Netanyahu contends with demands from hardline allies opposing any agreements that do not ensure Hamas’s eradication.
Netanyahu also confronts an approaching deadline to pass a budget to prevent government collapse and subsequent elections amid difficulty reaching consensus with coalition partners. Post-strike, the far-right Jewish Power party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir declared its reentry into the coalition after withdrawing in January over ceasefire concerns.
Beyond domestic politics, potential renewed conflict in Gaza could reverberate regionally. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels criticized the Israeli actions and hinted at resuming attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping. The U.S. recently initiated airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen in retaliation for previous attacks on shipping, resulting in at least 53 casualties.
Further violence in Gaza could destabilize the ceasefire achieved between Israel and Hezbollah in November, which had quelled deadly exchanges along the Israeli-Lebanon border.
The latest developments underscore heightened regional tensions and the fragility of existing peace efforts amid renewed hostilities.
