A potential ceasefire that might bring a temporary halt to the ongoing three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine is contingent upon Russia’s acceptance of a U.S. proposal. This proposal suggests a 30-day pause in hostilities, designed as a confidence-building step to facilitate discussions towards a comprehensive peace agreement.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has expressed concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin might attempt to stall such a temporary truce with conditions meant to sidetrack negotiations and prolong the conflict. Ukraine fears that in response to prior U.S. actions, which included withholding military aid and intelligence, further sanctions might be threatened against Russia to press Putin into compliance.
In anticipation of his upcoming dialogue with Putin, which is set for Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that the negotiation process would involve discussions about territory and power infrastructure—a process he referred to as “dividing up certain assets.” However, the broader peace efforts face hurdles as neither side appears ready to make significant concessions. Both nations are firm on certain issues that they regard as non-negotiable.
A detailed examination of the underlying demands illustrates the complexity of the situation:
**Russia’s Stance and Demands:**
At the onset of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia had specific conditions, including Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership, a drastic reduction of Ukraine’s military capabilities, and protection of Russian language and cultural rights, to maintain Ukraine as part of Moscow’s influence.
Currently, Russia insists that Ukraine must pull back troops from the four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—that Russia annexed in September 2022, despite not completely occupying them. Russia also calls for the unfreezing of its assets in the West and the lifting of Western sanctions, an incentive the Trump administration is said to consider as part of negotiations.
Putin has consistently highlighted the removal of what he terms “root causes of the crisis,” aiming to reverse NATO’s military expansion near Russian frontiers, which it views as a threat. Furthermore, Russia questions the legitimacy of Zelenskyy, who remains in power despite his term ending, to sign any peace accords. The challenge of holding elections during wartime has been a point of contention, with Trump echoing Russia’s demand for Ukraine to hold elections.
Additionally, Moscow rejects any idea of NATO member troops acting as peacekeepers.
**Ukraine’s Position and Requirements:**
Ukraine, dealing with challenges along a broad frontline, has shifted from demanding a rollback to its 2014 borders, acknowledging its current military limitations. Instead, Ukraine seeks a peace agreement fortified with security guarantees from allies to prevent future invasions by Russia.
Given the improbability of joining NATO without U.S. backing, discussions led by France and Britain are exploring alternative security guarantees. This “coalition of the willing” might involve European military presence and a defensive stance in case of renewed Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy has stressed the importance of bolstering the Ukrainian military, which implies continued international support and a robust arsenal to counter Russian capabilities. Ukraine also aims to develop its domestic defense industry to increase self-reliance.
Moreover, Ukraine demands the return of children transported to Russia and the release of civilians held in Russian detention. Kyiv adamantly opposes further territorial compromises with Russia.
**Concessions and Red Lines:**
Negotiations face additional hurdles due to mutually exclusive red lines from both parties. The United States has acknowledged the necessity of mutual concessions, but core disagreements, particularly over territories under Russian control, remain significant obstacles.
For Russia, rejecting any NATO presence in peacekeeping capacities is a priority. Conversely, Ukraine focuses on the territorial issue, a matter it cannot presently address through military means. Kyiv is unyielding in its refusal to recognize Russian claims over occupied regions, maintaining a strict adherence to international law despite potential practical limitations.
Ukraine also rejects any stipulations restricting its defense capabilities or its ambitions to join Western alliances such as NATO and the European Union.
