Congratulations are extended to the 12 possible contenders still vying for the Women’s Division I national championship. In theory, 68 teams are in contention, but realistically, only about 12 have a chance of making it to the Final Four in Tampa in a few weeks.
Since the inception of the NCAA women’s tournament in 1982, the title has predominantly been clinched by No. 1 seeds (32 times), No. 2 seeds (7 times), and No. 3 seeds (3 times). Lower-seeded teams historically haven’t fared well. Additionally, teams with more than a few losses rarely win the national championship, with Tennessee and Texas A&M being the notable exceptions with slightly looser records. Using a combination of less-than-five-losses criteria and top-three seed designation, the likely contenders are whittled down to UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, TCU, USC, and UConn.
But winning the championship isn’t the only thing to focus on: mastering your tournament bracket is equally important. Participating in a women’s bracket pool can be as enjoyable and strategic as joining a men’s bracket pool. Here’s some insight into optimizing your bracket choices:
Rankings are crucial. UCLA, South Carolina, UConn, USC, and Texas currently occupy the top five spots in the AP Top 25. Historically, only a few teams ranked outside of the top five have gone far in the tournament, including UConn, Texas A&M, and Tennessee.
Expect a few upset wins. Teams seeded 9 through 12 performed surprisingly well, winning several games in the 2022 and 2023 tournaments. It’s these middle-tier games that can separate you from the rest of the pool. However, avoid betting on massive upsets; only one 16-seed has ever defeated a No. 1 seed, which was Harvard in 1998.
Predicting game winners:
Round of 64 winners include teams like UCLA, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida State, N.C. State, Harvard in Spokane 1, and South Carolina, Indiana, Maryland, Green Bay in Birmingham 2. Similarly, Texas, Creighton, Ohio State, and TCU advance in Birmingham 3, alongside USC, California, Iowa, and UConn in Spokane 4.
In the regional semifinals, expect UCLA and LSU to stand out in Spokane 1, while South Carolina and Duke shine in Birmingham 2. Texas and Notre Dame should lead Birmingham 3, with USC and UConn emerging victorious in Spokane 4.
Regional finals predictups could see UCLA triumphing over LSU in Spokane 1, whereas South Carolina might secure a spot in Birmingham 2. Expect Notre Dame’s guards to outshine Texas in Birmingham 3, and UConn to reverse its December loss to USC in Spokane 4.
At the Final Four, the stage is set for exciting matchups: UCLA against UConn, and Notre Dame taking on South Carolina. The final showdown could likely be UConn versus South Carolina for the championship trophy. Ultimately, the determination and skills of Geno Auriemma, Paige Bueckers, and Azzi Fudd might bring UConn back to the pinnacle of women’s college basketball success.
