Brace yourselves as the NCAA Tournament kicks off, where hopes of a perfect bracket will likely crumble by Thursday night. This grand spectacle, akin to the world’s largest lottery, invites millions of participants to join bracket pools purely for fun or for cash prizes. Whatever the stakes, let’s not kid ourselves — even the so-called experts found this season bewildering.
Take Florida, which started the season at No. 21 and now holds a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, St. John’s, initially unranked, secured a No. 2 seed under Rick Pitino’s guidance. North Carolina, ranked No. 9 in the preseason, barely made it, leaving experts perplexed at their inclusion.
But before wading into predictions, adhere to these guidelines:
*Steer clear of No. 5 seeds.*
Sorry to Oregon, Michigan, Clemson, and Memphis, but no No. 5 seed has ever clinched the national championship since seeding began in 1979. This odd pattern mirrors the NBA, where No. 5 seeds have consistently fallen short.
*Avoid teams with double-digit losses.*
In NCAA history, only N.C. State (1983), Villanova (1985), and Kansas (1988) have entered the tournament with 10 or more losses and emerged as victors. Thus, a solemn nod to teams like Creighton, Texas A&M, St. Francis, Alabama State, Ole Miss, and North Carolina, among others — statistics imply a championship is unlikely.
*Expect an underdog to crash the Final Four.*
The chaos of March guarantees surprises. Last year featured a No. 11 seed in the Final Four; past years have seen combinations of No. 5, No. 8, and No. 9 seeds making the cut. Instances of higher-seeded teams reaching the semifinals span as far back as 2011.
*Prepare for a wild Thursday and Friday.*
It’s common knowledge that lower-seeded teams prevail in the thrilling opening rounds. Last year saw teams seeded from No. 9 to No. 12 clinch 11 victories in the round of 64. Since 2012, even No. 15 and No. 16 seeds have reached Round 2 — so never say never.
*Ultimately…*
Trust the top seeds. Undoubtedly, the upper echelons exhibit excellence; 41 of the last 45 champions were seeded No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3. Predicting upsets is key, but by your Final Four, make sure your screen isn’t filled with dark-horse contenders. A No. 9, two No. 11s, and a No. 14 might look cool but probably need a re-evaluation.
*Round of 64 Predictions*
South: Auburn, Louisville, Michigan, Yale, Ole Miss, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State.
East: Duke, Mississippi State, Liberty, Akron, BYU, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Alabama.
Midwest: Houston, Gonzaga, McNeese, High Point, Illinois, Kentucky, UCLA, Tennessee.
West: Florida, UConn, Memphis, Maryland, Drake, UNC Wilmington, Arkansas, St. John’s.
*Round of 32*
South: Auburn, Michigan, Iowa State, Michigan State.
East: Duke, Akron, BYU, Alabama.
Midwest: Gonzaga, McNeese, Kentucky, Tennessee.
West: Florida, Maryland, Drake, St. John’s.
*Regional Semifinals*
South: Michigan, Michigan State.
East: Duke, Alabama.
Midwest: Gonzaga, Tennessee.
West: Florida, St. John’s.
*Regional Finals*
South: Michigan State gets the edge thanks to March magic from Tom Izzo.
East: Duke survives, especially if Cooper Flagg stays healthy.
Midwest: Gonzaga, guided by the legendary Mark Few, is victorious.
West: Florida performs remarkably, but a fairytale run for St. John’s, led by Pitino, seems likely.
*Final Four*
The stage is set for Michigan State vs. St. John’s and Duke vs. Gonzaga.
With potential magic from Cooper Flagg, place your bets on Duke to seize the title.
And that’s how the madness of March keeps us both hopeful and humble each year. Brace for the unpredictability to unfold.
