Examining the NCAA Tournament Bubble:
The Rams Charge Forward
The Colorado State Rams are on a notable winning streak, boasting 10 consecutive victories. Their latest triumph over Boise State in the Mountain West Championship has secured them an automatic placement in the NCAA Tournament. Given that Colorado State was not considered a strong at-large contender previously, their success has unfortunately removed a spot from another team vying for a tournament entry. This adjustment might notably affect Boise State, which was previously projected to participate. A major deliberation for Selection Sunday will be determining how many slots the Mountain West will occupy— whether it be three, four, or possibly five teams.
Narrow Escapes
In a gripping encounter, the 16th-ranked Memphis managed to edge out Tulane by a single point in the AAC Tournament. Similarly, in the Atlantic 10, Virginia Commonwealth progressed smoothly. Should either team face a loss moving forward, they may find themselves in the pool for at-large consideration, impacting other bubble teams’ chances. Conversely, UC San Diego provided some respite for bubble teams by clinching the automatic berth in the Big West Conference.
Expert Opinions
Projections vary between experts on which teams will make the tournament. According to ESPN, Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Xavier, and Indiana comprise the last four teams likely to enter. Meanwhile, Sports Illustrated suggests Arkansas, San Diego State, Indiana, and Boise State. For those on the edge of missing out, ESPN lists Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, and Ohio State as its first four out, whereas Sports Illustrated names Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, and UC Irvine in similar positions.
Key Matches Ahead
On Sunday, two matches carry significant weight for those eyeing a spot in the NCAA Tournament: Memphis versus Alabama-Birmingham in the AAC final, and VCU taking on George Mason for the Atlantic 10’s spot.
Secured Spots
Teams that have already claimed automatic bids include SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley), Omaha (Summit), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Drake (Missouri Valley), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt), Robert Morris (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (Coastal Athletic), St. Francis, Pa. (Northeast), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), American (Patriot), Montana (Big Sky), Bryant (America East), Norfolk State (MEAC), Colorado State (Mountain West), Houston (Big 12), St. John’s (Big East), Akron (MAC), Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC), Duke (ACC), Liberty (Conference USA), UC San Diego (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC), and Grand Canyon (WAC).
Sunday’s Decision Day
A few conferences will decide their automatic bids on Sunday. These include matches in the AAC (Memphis vs. UAB), Atlantic 10 (VCU vs. George Mason), Big Ten (Michigan vs. Wisconsin), Ivy League (Yale vs. Cornell), and SEC (Florida vs. Tennessee).