In February, egg prices soared to a new high in the United States as the avian flu continues to spread, while Easter and Passover draw near. The Consumer Price Index reported that a dozen Grade A eggs averaged $5.90 in cities across the country last month, marking a 10.4% increase from the previous year. This surpassed the previous peak of $4.95 recorded in January.
The ongoing bird flu outbreak has compelled farmers to cull over 166 million birds, predominantly affecting egg-laying chickens. More than 30 million of these have been terminated just since the beginning of the year. If egg prices remain elevated, consumers will bear the brunt of increased costs for the third consecutive year as they prepare for Easter on April 20 and Passover, commencing the evening of April 12, both holidays where eggs hold significant cultural importance.
Historically, the price of a dozen eggs remained under $2 for decades until the current disease outbreak. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts egg prices to climb by 41% over last year’s $3.17 per dozen average.
However, there might be signs of relief on the horizon. The USDA noted a reduction in egg shortages and a decline in wholesale prices last week, which could eventually translate to retail price drops before this year’s late Easter, which comes three weeks later than last year’s. Notably, there have been no major bird flu outbreaks for two weeks now.
According to the USDA’s March 7 report, “Shoppers have begun to see shell egg offerings in the dairy cases becoming more reliable, although retail price levels have yet to adjust and remain off-putting to many.”
David Anderson, an economist for livestock and food marketing at Texas A&M University, observed that reduced wholesale prices might suggest a potential drop in retail prices as consumers purchase fewer eggs in response to high costs. “What that should tell us is things are easing a little bit in terms of prices,” he said. “So going forward, the next CPI report may very well indicate falling egg prices.”
However, Anderson cautions that substantial changes are improbable until bird populations are revitalized and production is restored. “Record high prices is a market signal to producers to produce more, but it takes time to be able to produce more, and we just haven’t had enough time for that to happen yet,” he remarked. “But I do think it’s going to happen. But it’s going to take some more months to get there.”
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, mentioned that diminishing wholesale prices is positive news but mentioned that increased Easter demand might cause a brief spike in prices. “In addition, egg farmers are closely watching spring migration of wild birds, recognizing that wild birds are a leading cause of the spread of this virus and pose a great and ongoing threat to egg-laying flocks,” she added.
Some advocacy groups and others have urged an investigation into whether egg producers are exploiting avian flu circumstances for price gouging. However, egg producers maintain that the avian flu outbreak is the sole reason for the heightened prices.
Restaurants have tried to manage the rising costs by including surcharges and other strategies to balance the spike in egg prices. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has revealed a strategy to tackle bird flu. It includes a $500 million investment to assist farmers in enhancing biosecurity measures, $400 million in additional support for those affected by the avian flu, and $100 million dedicated to research and potential development of vaccines and treatments for U.S. chicken flocks. Yet, it will likely take time before these measures yield results.
