In Omaha, Nebraska, a potential solution is on the horizon for managing bird flu outbreaks that have led to the culling of millions of chickens and soaring egg prices averaging nearly $6 a dozen. Vaccines could be a critical measure in combatting this issue. However, their implementation is delayed due to fears they might harm the lucrative chicken export market, which is worth billions of dollars.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has outlined a $100 million investment to explore bird flu vaccines, working alongside meat chicken, egg, and turkey industries. This initiative forms part of a broader $1 billion plan devised to enhance protective measures against the virus on farms—an effort the previous administration believes could help stabilize egg prices.
Meat chicken producers, in particular, are hesitant about the introduction of vaccines, concerned about the potential impact on meat exports, which reached nearly $4.7 billion last year. Meanwhile, egg and turkey producers, who primarily cater to the domestic market, have been severely affected by the virus.
The necessity for a vaccine stems from the current policy that involves slaughtering entire flocks to impede the virus’s spread, leading to the death of over 166 million birds in the U.S. since 2022. The majority of these are egg-laying hens, a vital factor behind the continuous surge in egg prices, now averaging $5.90 a dozen in certain regions. Poultry veterinarian Simon Shane notes that governmental reluctance to adopt vaccines largely results from the meat chicken sector’s opposition, highlighting the political nature of the issue.
Implementing a vaccination strategy requires establishing a mechanism to monitor outbreaks among vaccinated birds, who might not exhibit symptoms, suggested John Clifford, former chief veterinary officer for the USDA. Once resolved, trade negotiations can proceed to mitigate potential disruptions. Critics fear vaccines might allow the virus to stay dormant and possibly mutate, posing threats to humans and compromising food safety.
For broilers, the virus is less concerning because these birds are slaughtered between 6 to 8 weeks old, reducing infection risks compared to egg-laying hens, which can live up to two years or more. Additionally, most broilers are bred in the Southeast, an area that has experienced fewer outbreaks compared to the Midwest and West.
Another obstacle to vaccination is the logistics of distribution. Egg farmers argue that administering vaccines via feed or water is more feasible than injecting millions of birds in large barns. Distinguishing between vaccinated and infected birds poses further trade concerns, as other countries may hesitate to import potentially unsafe meat. Dr. Carol Cardona, a bird flu specialist at the University of Minnesota, points out that while monitoring vaccinated flocks could be costly, the current expenses in depopulating and sourcing alternative egg supplies are also significant.
International experiences reveal mixed results in vaccinating poultry against avian flu. Mexico and China have both implemented vaccination strategies with varied outcomes. Mexico, which does not cull infected flocks, perpetuates the virus’s presence. Conversely, China’s strategy of continuing to slaughter infected flocks has proven more effective in curbing outbreaks. Clifford suggests that post-vaccination, the U.S. should still consider culling infected flocks, possibly targeting only egg layers and turkeys for vaccination, excluding broilers.
Despite exploring vaccines, immediate relief for consumers is unlikely. The USDA has shown no urgency in rolling out vaccines, and even if executed promptly, new hens won’t be ready to meet demand due to their 20-week maturation period. Shane points out that markets will remain strained until new hens can ramp up egg production. Prices might ease modestly later in the year post-Easter, contingent on the avoidance of further outbreaks by major egg-producing states. The USDA anticipates average egg prices to be 41% higher than the anticipated 2024 average, suggesting a price around $4.47 per dozen, just below the current rate.
