NEWMAN, Calif. — California’s almond farmers are accustomed to the unpredictable nature of weather and water availability, but now they face the added challenge of unstable international trade dynamics. The U.S. government’s imposition of tariffs on several countries and the prospect of more could significantly affect the almond industry, which relies heavily on exports. California is the leading producer of almonds globally, comprising about 80% of the world’s supply. With the majority of the state’s crop destined for overseas markets, trade tariffs could alter export routes and have wide-reaching effects on California’s economy.
China has already retaliated to the U.S. tariffs by increasing tariffs on American almonds, adding to previous trade barriers established during a prior U.S. administration. Colin Carter, an agricultural economist from the University of California, Davis, warns that a trade conflict involving regions like India, the European Union, and the Middle East could severely damage the almond industry. A decrease in almond prices might result, potentially leading to the destruction of orchards and the sale of farms throughout the state.
Recently, President Donald Trump, now in his second term, imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and delayed a threatened 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. He has also indicated intentions to implement reciprocal tariffs, matching those imposed by other countries on U.S. products. This situation is difficult for farmers who are already challenged and trying to plan for the future. U.S. trading partners have responded to these tariffs. China, for instance, announced additional tariffs on several American agricultural products, including a 10% tariff on almonds.
California’s economy relies heavily on almond exports, which generated $4.7 billion in 2022, with significant trade with the European Union and India. Almond industry experts emphasize the importance of maintaining diverse export markets to mitigate risks. According to Rick Kushman of the Almond Board of California, they are actively shipping to over 100 destinations, underscoring the necessity of a broad export strategy.
Although some farmers in California’s Central Valley appreciate other policies from Trump’s administration, such as increased water access for farming, the almond tariffs present significant hurdles. These new tariffs mean that California almonds will face a total tariff of 35% in China due to past trade actions. Consequently, nuts from countries like Australia have become more competitive in the Chinese market, while California’s exports have diminished.
Many almond exporters have shifted their focus to new markets. Zachary Williams from Stewart & Jasper Orchards notes that Canadian buyers are purchasing almonds to pre-empt future tariff implementation. Any potential tariff increases from India could also destabilize the market, affecting consumer affordability there. Williams asserts that while the tariffs themselves are problematic, the uncertainty surrounding future trade conditions poses an even greater challenge for growers, particularly those planning for long-term cultivation.
