In Paris, crucial discussions are set to take place as military leaders from over 30 nations gather to strategize on forming an international force to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression after a potential ceasefire. Ukraine has emphasized the need to clarify issues such as the size, positioning, and military response options of this proposed force in case the ceasefire is violated.
This significant meeting marks the peak of Franco-British efforts to unite willing nations into a coalition aimed at reassuring Ukraine’s security and deterring further Russian incursions. Almost the entire NATO alliance—excluding the United States—as well as Commonwealth nations, Japan, and South Korea are participating. Each country will be encouraged to describe potential military contributions, such as manpower and equipment.
Ukrainian leaders are apprehensive about agreements lacking clear security commitments. They seek assurance on how effectively this coalition would counter any Russian breach of a ceasefire. Questions remain about the nature and rapidity of military interventions, should they be necessary.
There is currently no concrete plan regarding military responses, though there is significant intent and discourse amongst the involved parties. First, it is essential to determine what these countries are willing and capable of providing, according to officials from Kyiv, Paris, and London.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has supported the initiative but remains skeptical, noting in a previous interview that foreign troops alone cannot secure Ukraine. He urges for the plan to be fortified by American and European military aid and sustainable development of Ukraine’s defense industry.
A prominent Ukrainian official mentioned that, while many discussions have occurred, concrete proposals are still lacking. The dialogue continues beyond initial stages but requires a more stable approach.
France and Britain’s conceived force aims to bolster Ukraine’s confidence and deter future aggressions. A French military representative suggested the force might include heavy weaponry and reserves of arms, allowing for rapid deployment to counter any aggressive Russian actions instantly.
An alternate proposal includes potential immediate strikes on Russian resources upon violation. Discussions are ongoing involving Western diplomats and military leaders across nations to finalize these details.
Political leaders have met frequently to build consensus and progress towards this plan. A series of summits, including a gathering in London and a virtual conference called by the UK, have been held to enhance coordination. France and Britain now seek broader support from nations beyond Europe, extending invitations to Asian and Oceania nations for the upcoming Paris talks.
Despite excluding the USA, the initiative underlines Europe’s ability to take significant responsibility for Ukrainian security post-ceasefire.
In discussions, some Western officials proposed a smaller European assurance force rather than a substantial peacekeeping presence along the entire front. This force’s deployment could cover critical sites, supported by remote surveillance and backed by Western air and sea capabilities.
Naval participation could be significant in the Black Sea, ensuring it remains secure and navigable. Ultimately, the goal is to combine commitments from willing countries into a reliable and verifiable security guarantee, with hopes of incorporating US support these initiatives.
Western officials advise that forming a peace plan involves multiple steps, potentially enlarging the supporting coalition over time. Initially, a temporary one-month ceasefire—as suggested by Zelenskyy and European allies—could build trust.
Ukrainian leaders express optimism about the coalition, recognizing limited alternatives with NATO not directly involved. A senior Ukrainian official asserted, “The coalition of the willing is feasible and could be a pivotal opportunity for Europe to assert its influence.” The consequences of missing this chance could heavily impact Ukraine’s security landscape.
