South Korea’s Constitutional Court is on the verge of making a significant ruling concerning the country’s embattled conservative President, Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon, who was impeached following his decision to impose martial law, faces a tumultuous political landscape marked by deep division between conservative and liberal factions. The resolution of Yoon’s impeachment trial could potentially exacerbate South Korea’s political polarization, especially given the nation’s pressing foreign policy challenges and North Korea’s ties with Russia.
The court has been assessing President Yoon’s status since December when the liberal-majority National Assembly voted for his suspension. His December 3 martial law decree is the focal point, putting the nation’s democratic structures to the test. Beyond impeachment, Yoon is also awaiting a criminal trial, having been arrested in January for alleged rebellion tied to his decree.
Should the Constitutional Court rule against Yoon, it would cement his removal from office and necessitate a national election within two months. Conversely, a favorable ruling would restore him to his presidential duties. However, the timing of his return was uncertain, as he had been incarcerated until recently. Ultimately, he was released from prison after a Seoul court overturned his arrest, allowing him to prepare for his trial without detention.
Following the testimonies of 16 witnesses, the Constitutional Court concluded its hearings on February 25, though the date of the verdict announcement remains unknown. Some speculate it could be issued soon, reminiscent of prior rulings concerning former presidents. The crux of the issue lies in Yoon’s deployment of security forces to the assembly post-martial law enactment. While Yoon stated his intent was to maintain order, allegations suggest he instructed officers to either stymie legislative votes or target political adversaries. Fortunately, no lawmakers were arrested, and no violence ensued.
Given the situation’s volatility, massive protests previously erupted near the assembly demanding Yoon’s ousting. These demonstrations have diminished in intensity following his impeachment, but rallying efforts have not ceased entirely. Yoon’s supporters have vocally opposed his impeachment, potentially preparing for protest escalation in the event of his removal. On the flip side, reinstating Yoon could reignite substantial liberal protests, according to Choi Jin of the Institute of Presidential Leadership. Choi anticipates that whatever the outcome, the political chasm within South Korea will inevitably widen.
In anticipation of heightened tensions, Acting President Choi Sang-mok has pledged strict measures against unlawful demonstrations, especially amidst concerns of possible violent clashes between opposing groups prior to the court’s decision. Tensions have previously boiled over into violence earlier this year when Yoon’s supporters attacked police officers after his arrest warrant was sanctioned. The altercation resulted in multiple injuries among law enforcement.
Regarding Yoon’s rebellion charges, he is accused of deploying martial law as a rebellion strategy, which, if proven, carries severe penalties, including a possible death sentence or life imprisonment. The outcome of Yoon’s criminal proceedings will likely be influenced by the Constitutional Court’s decision. An impeachment endorsement could bolster the rebellion case against him, according to Park SungBae, a lawyer specializing in criminal law. However, dismissal of his impeachment might indicate that Yoon’s actions were either not severe enough to warrant dismissal or not illegal, complicating the prosecutors’ task ahead of the criminal trial.
Because of his presidential immunity, Yoon has only been charged with rebellion. Should the Constitutional Court overturn his impeachment, the continuation of his criminal case could face scrutiny. Nevertheless, even with reinstatement, Choi believes Yoon’s authority is already compromised, which could prolong South Korea’s leadership void.
