This week, the fate of the first and the last spots in the NCAA Tournament hinges on the outcomes of various conference tournaments. Auburn, which held the No. 1 position for two months, has now slipped to No. 3 in the AP Top 25 due to defeats by Texas A&M and Alabama. The latter game ended with a dramatic overtime buzzer-beater, causing Auburn to enter the SEC Tournament as the top seed with a two-game losing streak. Nevertheless, their position is precarious as they lack room for error vis-à-vis their NCAA tourney aspirations.
The race for the overall No. 1 seed is intense, with either Duke, now ranked No. 1 and the ACC’s top seed, or second-ranked Houston, leading the Big 12 Tournament as the No. 1 seed, standing as potential contenders. Duke’s coach Jon Scheyer commented, “We’ve been focused on achieving our immediate goals and giving our best at every moment.” With Duke climbing to the apex of the AP poll for the first time since November 2021, Scheyer aims to secure the top position by season’s end.
Though the battle for the top seed is fierce, the fight for the final NCAA spots is equally gripping, with Selection Sunday looming. Several power conference games could soon become crucial win-and-in situations. In the depth-laden SEC Tournament, nine teams are assured places, but a key match between No. 12 seed Texas and No. 13 seed Vanderbilt awaits. Texas (17-14) may need a significant performance not only to secure tournament entry but also to preserve coach Rodney Terry’s position. On the flip side, a win for Vanderbilt (20-11) could solidify their NCAA hopes.
This game precedes another pivotal clash, where No. 11 seed Georgia (20-11) faces No. 14 seed Oklahoma (19-12). Here, a win could promise a spot in the tournament, while the losing team might face secondary postseason offers. Similarly, in the Big Ten, No. 10 seed Ohio State (17-14) likely needs a victory against No. 15 seed Iowa, and Indiana (19-12), the ninth seed, may have to exact revenge on Oregon to enter the 68-team field.
Turning the focus to mid-major conferences, Drake eased some pressure from the power leagues by securing the Missouri Valley championship. Had the Bulldogs lost the finale to Bradley in St. Louis, their at-large berth could have been jeopardized. Attention now shifts to the Big West, where teams like UC San Diego and UC Irvine hover on the NCAA bubble. The top-seeded Tritons, riding on a 13-game win streak, would be considered strong at-large candidates, and the No. 2 seed Anteaters also deserve a close inspection, particularly if they face UC San Diego in the conference finals.
In the Mountain West, while New Mexico boasts a strong hold as the top seed, the other teams, including Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State, and Boise State, must demonstrate consecutive wins to sustain their at-large bids. In Conference USA and the Southland, conferences will hope top seeds Liberty and McNeese State, respectively, prevail. Both teams stand as potential at-large candidates, even if they falter in their championship games.
Turning to key ratings, VCU, despite falling to Dayton, finds itself almost assured of an at-large spot unless they stumble in the tourney’s first round. The Rams pride themselves on a 25-6 record and a commendable No. 33 NET ranking. North Carolina aims to avoid missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years. After a 13-7 ACC record, they likely need a victory in the conference tourney, while positioned at No. 40 in NET. Xavier, the fourth seed, must tackle No. 5 seed Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. With a victory, they improve their chances; a defeat, however, prolongs a tense wait for Selection Sunday.
