LEADVILLE, Colo. — In the Western United States, officials responsible for avalanche warnings are voicing significant concerns. They caution that the Trump administration’s recent dismissal of hundreds of meteorologists and environmental scientists could potentially disrupt life-saving forecasts vital for skiers and mountain drivers.
These forecasts are essential for those who venture into the treacherous mountain gorges, which are inclined to avalanches. In Alaska, efforts continued to recover three individuals trapped by a massive avalanche near Anchorage two days after the incident, despite forecasters having warned about the ease of triggering slides due to fragile snow layers.
These warnings are not just for adventurers; they serve the general public as well. Transportation officials often depend on these forecasts to assess risks on heavily traveled routes, such as a roadway in Colorado where a vehicle was recently swept off by an avalanche.
“Our work saves lives, and there are individuals walking among us today because of it,” stated Doug Chabot, who has directed the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center in Montana for nearly 24 years. “Randomly cutting these programs by slashing funds will diminish our life-saving capabilities.”
Avalanches claim the lives of approximately two dozen people in the U.S. annually, and predicting the risk heavily relies on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Forecasters rely on NOAA for both data-driven models and consultations with National Weather Service meteorologists to interpret that data accurately.
“We have our model, but it can’t function without NOAA’s contributions,” explained Ethan Greene, head of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center. “Removing these contributions means key elements will falter.”
This winter, 18 fatalities have occurred due to avalanches, predominantly in remote Western locales. Forecasting centers, 14 of which operate under the U.S. Forest Service, employ NOAA’s weather models.
The federal workforce contraction is a broader initiative not detailed by the administration in terms of specific NOAA roles impacted. According to former NOAA leaders, the dismissals could broadly impact aviation, maritime safety, and weather warning systems.
Despite inquiries, NOAA refrained from elaborating on the ramifications of these cuts for avalanche forecasting, responding only that it continues to pursue its public safety mission.
Although immediate impacts may not be evident, Greene acknowledged that any reduction in data quality could lead to less reliable forecasts.
On a mountainside this week near Leadville, Colorado, Greene demonstrated snow analysis, crucial for assessing avalanche risk, by examining snow crystals for weak layers.
In Frisco, Colorado, light snowfall greeted college students Joseph Burgoyne and Michael Otenbaker as they prepared to ski. Burgoyne expressed apprehension over social media reports of skiers ensnared by avalanches, acknowledging the critical role forecasts play in safety.
“The terrain we explore is no joke, and those forecasting reports are lifesavers,” Burgoyne noted. “Everyone wants fun and thrill, but the dangers are ever-present.”