LONDON — Since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, the United States has been Ukraine’s most significant military supporter. The recent decision by the Trump administration to suspend this aid, however, doesn’t signal an immediate collapse of Ukrainian defenses. Nonetheless, it poses a serious threat by potentially removing some of Ukraine’s most powerful weapons and increasing pressure on Kyiv to agree to a peace settlement.
So, how reliant is Ukraine on U.S. support? Since Russia intensified its military aggression on February 24, 2022, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with more than $180 billion in assistance, of which over $66.5 billion has been in military aid. This accounts for about 20% of Ukraine’s military supplies and includes crucial weaponry such as long-range missiles and Patriot air defense systems, essential for intercepting powerful Russian missiles.
American military support extends beyond just weaponry. Ukrainian troops depend on satellite communication systems like Elon Musk’s Starlink for frontline communication. Additionally, U.S. intelligence helps them track Russian movements and target Ukrainian strikes. A halt in satellite data sharing would severely hamper Ukraine’s retaliatory capabilities, as other allied nations simply lack the resources to fill this void.
The extent of the “pause and review” announced by the White House remains unclear. This order will stay in place until President Donald Trump feels confident of Ukraine’s commitment to peace negotiations. The decision came after a tense discussion last week between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump claimed Ukraine hadn’t shown enough gratitude for U.S. support.
Identifying exactly what aid has been paused is challenging. The halt includes certain military assistance and arms destined for Ukraine, although specifics on what is affected remain vague. Much of the paused aid was likely within the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) framework, which provides fast-track weapon supplies from Pentagon stockpiles. For instance, a $500 million aid package approved shortly before President Joe Biden left office remains partially undelivered.
On the battlefield, this suspension will not immediately affect ongoing operations where Ukraine is currently holding back a relentless Russian offensive along a 600-mile frontline. However, weakened air defenses and diminished capacity to strike behind enemy lines could have long-term consequences. According to Russian and Ukrainian defense experts, while European allies like the UK and EU might bridge some gaps with additional supply and financing commitments, they cannot replace the cutting-edge U.S.-made systems.
Ukraine, for its part, has enhanced its domestic weapon production capabilities, serving as a buffer against complete reliance on external support. Domestic production accounts for over half of the military hardware used, and Ukraine has developed its own munitions capacities, including drones.
In response to these developments, a summit in London sought to encourage European nations to bolster their support, hopes pinned on preparing Ukraine optimally for any forthcoming peace discussions. The UK’s pledge of a financial package to deliver air defense missiles, coupled with the EU’s ambitious plan to reinforce its collective security framework, underscores this evolving partnership. However, experts argue that removing American contributions creates an unavoidable void in this joint aid effort.