In a significant move to bolster European security, French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed his willingness to engage in discussions with European allies regarding nuclear deterrence. This development follows concerns sparked by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks, which questioned the reliability of the trans-Atlantic alliance and the defense of Ukraine. Macron’s initiative, which has been on the table for some time, has gained renewed urgency among European NATO allies who have traditionally depended on the U.S. nuclear deterrent for protection.
Nuclear deterrence functions on the principle that the potential devastation from nuclear weapons discourages hostile actions from other nations, particularly nuclear attacks. During the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear umbrella ensured NATO allies would be protected by American nuclear might, curbing the desire for independent nuclear arsenals. Currently, France stands as the sole nuclear power within the European Union. Although the United Kingdom is no longer an EU member following Brexit, it remains a formidable nuclear force within NATO, striving for stronger ties with the EU.
Amidst calls from German political leader Friedrich Merz for dialogues on “nuclear sharing” with France, European Union leaders are scheduled to address defense issues along with support for Ukraine during a special summit in Brussels. The summit is notable for the absence of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy being the sole non-EU participant.
France’s nuclear strategy is fundamentally defensive, intended to safeguard the nation’s “vital interests.” Although a NATO member, France independently oversees its nuclear capabilities while aligning with NATO’s overarching deterrence strategy. Since a pivotal 2020 address, Macron has asserted that France’s “vital interests” have acquired a “European dimension”—a stance he has reiterated lately. Emmanuelle Maitre, from France’s Foundation for Strategic Research, highlighted the urgency in Macron’s recent comments, pointing to a search among NATO countries for continued deterrence within Europe.
France maintains the fourth-largest nuclear arsenal globally, preferring ambiguity around the conditions for nuclear use to deter potential aggressors. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the United States and Russia collectively hold the majority of the world’s nuclear weapons, followed by China and then France, with an estimated 290 warheads. The United Kingdom, also a notable nuclear power, has approximately 225 warheads according to the federation. France’s deterrence capabilities include ballistic missiles on nuclear submarines and air-launched cruise missiles. The goal is to ensure the ability to inflict unacceptable damage on any adversary.
Domestically, Macron’s willingness to use France’s nuclear capabilities for European protection has faced criticism, particularly from Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally. Le Pen has argued that nuclear deterrence cannot be shared without being diminished, emphasizing that the decision to use nuclear weapons should remain a national decision by the French president, elected directly by the populace. Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has reinforced that nuclear forces and their deployment remain a French responsibility, while acknowledging that Europe’s security architecture is an appropriate forum for discussion. All European capitals, Lecornu mentioned, will inevitably seek clarity on these issues, and France intends to be prepared to respond.
