In Sudan, the ongoing conflict now approaches a crucial point, nearly two years after it began, marking a period that has claimed the lives of tens of thousands and forced millions to flee their homes, amidst numerous violent atrocities.
The military forces, for the first time since the conflict’s inception, are steadily gaining ground against their adversary, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and might soon reclaim the capital, Khartoum.
In response, the RSF declared, during a meeting held in Kenya, their intention to establish a parallel government along with their allies.
Despite these developments, many observers are skeptical that the conflict will conclude shortly. The situation on the ground reflects an ongoing turmoil that began in April 2023, stemming from clashes between the military and RSF across Khartoum and other regions.
Initially, the leaders of both factions appeared united with plans to guide Sudan’s transition to democracy following a significant public uprising in 2019. However, they worked together to obstruct efforts towards reinstating civilian governance, leading to the current violent struggle for dominance.
Since the beginning of the conflict, estimates suggest at least 20,000 deaths, though the actual figures might exceed this. The war has also displaced over 14 million individuals and caused famine in various regions.
Recently, military efforts have penetrated deeper into the Greater Khartoum region, targeting districts under RSF control, including essential government buildings like the presidential palace. The military has reclaimed significant areas in White Nile and Gezira provinces and broken an RSF siege in North Kordofan’s capital, el-Obeid.
These advancements represent a notable shift as Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) significantly counter the RSF’s momentum after a long period.
Should the military reclaim Khartoum, the conflict might pivot, creating effectively separate zones controlled by the military and RSF, although such a division is unlikely to be stable or sustainable.
Both Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the military chief, and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF, show little inclination toward earnest peace negotiations, determined to continue their struggle for control.
The RSF maintains substantial control over western Sudan, most notably in Darfur, where they recently launched an offensive on El-Fasher. This escalation forced Doctors Without Borders to cease operations at the Zamzam camp amidst a declared famine affecting around 500,000 displaced individuals.
Victory in Khartoum could expose fractures within the military’s coalition, comprised of various factions, including discontented former Darfur rebels and Islamist brigades, unified solely by the fight against the RSF.
The RSF’s decision to form a parallel government is seen as an attempt to gain political leverage amid military struggles. Their charter, created in Nairobi, advocates for a secular, democratic, and decentralized Sudan, hinting at the complex sociopolitical landscape stemming from demands for regional autonomy.
The RSF, rooted in the infamous Janjaweed militias, has been accused of numerous crimes and atrocities. The group previously cooperated with the military to oust civilian leaders, attacking pro-democracy protests.
International condemnation includes U.S. sanctions levied against Dagalo, accusing the RSF of committing genocide. Conversely, accusations of atrocities also surround the military, though they are perceived to be on a smaller scale.
Politically, Sudan remains divided, with some factions supporting the RSF, mistrustful of the military’s historical ties with Islamist groups from the era of Omar al-Bashir’s rule.
Civilian democracy movements face internal divisions over the ongoing turmoil, while significant political entities like the Umma Party are struggling with internal dynamics over support agreements formed in Nairobi.
Significantly involved in Nairobi discussions, the SPLM-N, a faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, signifies potential regional influences on the conflict’s scope, especially in their stronghold, the Nuba Mountains.
Parts of Sudan experience shifting dynamics, allowing some displaced individuals to return home, particularly those who sought refuge in Egypt.
Dr. Khalid Abdelsalam notes some residents have returned to specific areas in Khartoum and surrounding regions, albeit cautiously, while regions like North Darfur remain fragile with persistent RSF threats against civilian gatherings. The ongoing crisis continues to present catastrophic humanitarian challenges, including shortages in essential supplies and services.
