In the South Pacific, three tropical cyclones have simultaneously emerged, a phenomenon scientists describe as uncommon. Currently, Cyclones Rae, Seru, and Alfred are active during what is considered the peak of the tropical cyclone season, which spans from November to April. Cyclones in this region are equivalent to hurricanes, which occur in the North Atlantic, yet they hold different regional names.
Simultaneous occurrences of three cyclones in this region are not entirely unheard of but are relatively rare. According to atmospheric science expert Brian Tang, while the North Atlantic often experiences three hurricanes in September, it remains a busy period for the South Pacific. Though three tropical cyclones appearing together is ample, it is not unprecedented. The last occurrence of three concurrent storms was in January 2021, with cyclones Lucas, Ana, and Bina, though Bina’s official status as a Category 1 storm was uncertain.
Cyclone Rae formed north of Fiji, bringing destructive winds and heavy rains that damaged fruit-bearing trees. Meanwhile, Cyclone Alfred appeared in the Coral Sea and is forecasted to cause flooding in Queensland, a northeastern state of Australia, over the weekend. Cyclone Seru formed recently and is expected to approach Vanuatu but remain offshore, limiting its impact.
Although the simultaneous appearance of these cyclones presents an intriguing study, scientists find it challenging to pinpoint a single cause. Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist from Princeton University, highlights the potential role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an atmospheric phenomenon that travels globally, influencing weather patterns over specific regions for extended periods. The MJO may currently be enhancing cyclone activity in the southwest Pacific. Vecchi cautions that the atmosphere’s inherent chaos and natural variations mean that other unpredictable factors could also be at play, resulting in the coincidental development of these storms.