DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, may not be present in person for the inaugural high-stakes discussions between the United States and Russia concerning the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but his position as host is pivotal and could prove transformative for the longstanding confrontation.
At just 39 years old, the Crown Prince has effectively assumed the role of the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, with his father, King Salman, at the age of 89, reigning behind the scenes. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s international image has been overshadowed by the war in Yemen and the controversial 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence agencies suspect he orchestrated.
Currently, the Crown Prince is central to the Trump administration’s diplomacy with Russia, a nation with which Saudi Arabia has managed to maintain a cautious relationship since the Ukraine conflict began, largely through the OPEC+ oil cartel. His attention-grabbing announcement of a $600 billion investment in the U.S. seems to have piqued President Donald Trump’s interest, potentially paving the way for Saudi Arabia to become the location of Trump’s inaugural international trip as president.
Moreover, as Trump considers his first summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin—which Moscow hopes could reintegrate it into the realm of Western nations—Prince Mohammed is poised to remain an influential figure. As the discussions commenced, the Saudi Press Agency widely circulated the news of these U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, attributing them to the Crown Prince’s initiative to bolster global security and harmony.
However, this strategy is not without its challenges. The tenuous ceasefire concerning the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has devastated the Gaza Strip, continues to be precarious. Trump’s proposals implying U.S. ownership of Gaza have raised tensions within the Arab world. Palestinians seek both Gaza and the West Bank for their future state, a sentiment echoed by the majority of the international community.
Recent Saudi state media have also taken jabs at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a stark contrast to previous diplomatic deliberations between Saudi Arabia and Israel under the Biden administration, in a context that could lead toward potential formal recognition. The notion of U.S. ownership of Gaza has particularly angered Saudis who firmly support Palestinian rights, prompting the Saudi Foreign Ministry to assert its steadfast position on the matter.
Moreover, Trump has long criticized OPEC, an organization where Saudi Arabia holds significant influence. In a prior statement, he suggested that OPEC’s actions in reducing oil prices could alleviate the crisis in Ukraine. “One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and to drop the price of oil, because they have it nice and high,” Trump remarked when discussing the conflict.
Currently, global oil prices are significantly reduced from highs exceeding $120 per barrel in 2022 to roughly $75 today. Such declines could hinder the Crown Prince’s ambitious economic projects, including his vision for a $500 billion futuristic city named Neom.
In recent years, amid the fallout from Khashoggi’s killing, both China and Russia have offered Saudi Arabia a degree of prestige often aimed at projecting power on the international stage. Prince Mohammed’s engagements have included discussions with leaders such as Xi Jinping and Putin, further solidifying these ties. Notably, a Chinese-mediated deal in 2023 that reestablished relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has opened new avenues to influence U.S. perceptions of Middle Eastern politics, also providing some relief from security threats arising from Iran.
Amid feelings of stagnation in U.S. responses to Iranian aggressions and actions by Iranian-supported Yemeni rebels, Saudi Arabia is adjusting its diplomatic approaches, cultivating connections among both allies and adversaries. In Asharq Al Awsat, a Saudi-owned newspaper, journalist Mishari al-Dhaidi jubilantly referred to the summit as a method of “restoring dialogue between the two poles of the world,” heralding a hopeful future of international cooperation.
Despite poetic expressions, the effectiveness of Prince Mohammed’s strategy is manifest at this moment in time, independent of the discussions’ results. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is anticipated to arrive in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, with Trump hinting at a future visit as well.
