GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador — Residents of Ecuador can recount instances of crime with unsettling ease, whether it occurred on public transportation, at parks, on sidewalks, in taxis, near shopping malls, or close to dining establishments.
Many have fallen victim to theft or extended kidnappings, recalling exactly what was lost: a whole month’s wages, several mobile phones, or their wallets.
So widespread is the crime that stories of burglaries, carjackings, and other offenses no longer shock those who hear them. Yet, these personal and shared experiences of loss will heavily influence voters as they head to the polls on Sunday. They must choose between a new president, marking the third in four years, or giving the current leader, President Daniel Noboa, a chance to continue his work in office.
“Since the surge in violence, nothing has improved,” Briggitte Hurtado expressed during a recent evening at her jewelry stall in the bustling port city of Guayaquil, where customers seemed scarce.
“People used to fill this area; activity was alive,” she noted. “As for my vote, I still don’t know who to choose.”
At just 23 years old, Hurtado voices her doubts about Noboa, especially given her own troubling encounters since he took office in November 2023. Last year, she was the victim of theft twice while leaving work, but the most distressing incident was when she and her boyfriend were held in a taxi for four hours during which the driver and an accomplice emptied $800 from her boyfriend’s bank account.
The surge of violence in Ecuador has been linked to the cocaine trade originating from neighboring Colombia and Peru. Criminal organizations, including Mexican, Colombian, and Balkan cartels, have become entrenched in the country, often collaborating with local gangs.
On the ballot this Sunday are 16 candidates, including Noboa and leftist attorney Luisa González, whom he defeated in a prior runoff election. This earlier election followed the dissolution of the National Assembly initiated by former President Guillermo Lasso, who significantly shortened his own term.
Both Noboa and González, who served short terms as lawmakers before launching their presidential bids, are leading the polls. To claim an outright victory, a candidate must garner 50% of the votes or 40% with a 10-point cushion against their closest rival. If deemed necessary, a runoff is scheduled for April 13.
As political observers note, voters appear conflicted. “People start contemplating ‘What about Noboa?’ but then they ask, ‘Do I want to revert to Correismo?’” explained Will Freeman, an expert on Latin American relations. He referred to the politically charged movement founded by former President Rafael Correa, who held power from 2007 until 2017 and saw his presidency increasingly marred by authoritarianism and corruption charges.
González, 47, previously occupied various governmental roles during Correa’s administration and was a lawmaker until her recent political candidacy. In contrast, Noboa, 37, is a wealthy heir known for his family’s banana trade empire; he began his political journey by securing a seat in the National Assembly in 2021, later becoming its Economic Development Commission chair.
Since Noboa assumed office, the homicide rate has decreased significantly — from 8,237 (46.18 per 100,000 people) in 2023 to 6,964 (38.76 per 100,000 people) last year — yet it remains markedly higher than the pre-violence figures of 2019, which reported just 1,188 homicides (6.85 per 100,000). Furthermore, kidnapping cases have risen from 1,643 in 2023 to 1,761 by November 2024.
Despite his aggressive crime-fighting measures, which appeal to some voters, Noboa has faced criticism for overstepping legal boundaries and norms in governance. He declared a state of emergency in early 2024 allowing military mobilization in crime-affected areas and prisons. His controversial decision last year to authorize a police raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito to apprehend fugitive former Vice President Jorge Glas shocked many on the global stage.
Additionally, Noboa’s governance style raised eyebrows when he temporarily transferred presidential powers to an unelected official while he campaigned, leading to disputes with Vice President Verónica Abad, who subsequently felt isolated from the administration after being assigned as ambassador to Israel shortly after Noboa took office.
In Ecuador, voting is obligatory. On Thursday, various inmates awaiting sentencing participated in the elections at designated polling stations in over 40 prisons across the country.
Given the dire options on the ballot, some citizens in Guayaquil, the city hardest hit by the violence, are opting to cast blank votes as a form of protest against the political landscape. Dario Castro, a resident, stated his intention to vote blank on Sunday. Having experienced two robberies while commuting and his brother being kidnapped, he sees only two extreme paths to combat the ongoing crisis: “Either you negotiate with organized crime, or you confront it decisively; otherwise, the citizens are left defenseless,” Castro, 46, remarked.
