Ciudad Juárez, Mexico — As dawn breaks and sunlight gleams over the extensive border fence separating the United States and Mexico, cargo trucks, laden with various auto parts and electronics, spring into action along the border bridges. Workers, often tired from the early start, fill the factories where numerous products are assembled for the U.S. market.
For over fifty years, this routine has sustained the transnational trade dynamic that saw more than $800 billion exchanged between the U.S. and Mexico in 2024 alone.
However, the anticipated 25% tariffs that President Donald Trump has threatened against both Mexico and Canada have thrown these manufacturing centers, especially those along the northern Mexican border, into a state of uncertainty. This anxiety persists even after a temporary reprieve Trump negotiated just last Monday.
The imposition of such tariffs could devastate the Mexican border economy, heavily reliant on manufacturing goods for U.S. consumption — including auto parts, medical products, and various electronics — with analysts predicting a potential recession as a consequence. Many workers face uncertainty regarding their job security, while business leaders report that this unpredictability has caused investors to become more cautious.
Carlos Ponce, a truck driver with 35 years of experience, expressed concern regarding the ongoing situation. Leaning against his truck at the customs checkpoint between Ciudad Juárez and El Paso, Texas, he voiced, “It’s a conflict between governments, and we’re the ones most affected. Tomorrow, who knows what will happen?”
Manufacturing operations, particularly the export-oriented assembly plants known as maquiladoras, form the backbone of Ciudad Juárez’s economy, with 97% of their products destined for the U.S. According to Mexico’s Economic Ministry, these factories originated in the 1960s to stimulate economic growth in northern Mexico and reduce costs for U.S. buyers. The initiative gained traction after the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, a deal that was eventually replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) during Trump’s presidency.
Today, signs depicting the dollar-to-peso exchange rate illuminate the city, symbolizing the interconnectedness of the two nations. “Every development in the U.S., whether economic or social, directly impacts us since companies in Mexico rely on sales in the United States,” remarked Thor Salayandia, who operates an auto-parts manufacturing facility in Ciudad Juárez. “The U.S. also relies on Mexico for its manufacturing, but that perspective seems overlooked.”
Recently, a measure of relief washed over both workers and business owners when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed she successfully negotiated a one-month delay on the tariffs with Trump. “Now, we’re buying time,” Salayandia stated, hopeful for more favorable conditions.
In the factories, workers produce a variety of items ranging from auto parts to T-shirts branded with U.S. insignias. The economic symbiosis allows product components to cross the border numerous times before reaching the consumer market, raising concerns about the implications of losing this interconnected vapor of commerce. One U.S. firm indicated it may have to relocate some production back to the U.S., which would incur significant costs.
Antonio Ruiz, a compliance officer at Tecma — a firm assisting foreign companies in setting up operations on the border — shared that numerous companies were convening emergency meetings over the weekend. They feared that the tariffs could worsen the economic landscape while pushing Mexico towards a recession. “Preparing for an unprecedented situation is exceptionally challenging,” Ruiz remarked, adding that companies can only brace for short-term impacts.
Salayandia and various economists caution that imposing tariffs could trigger a chain reaction of job losses and increased prices on both sides of the border. In Mexico, they predict rising unemployment could exacerbate violence in border towns as more individuals turn to drug cartels, alongside an uptick in Mexican migration towards the U.S.
Manuel Sotelo, a representative of Mexico’s National Chamber of Freight Transportation and owner of a trucking fleet that frequently crosses the border, perceives the tariff threats as more about political maneuvering than genuine economic strategy. He quipped, “Both nations would suffer immensely. What would America do during the Super Bowl without avocados if tariffs are enforced?”
Nonetheless, Sotelo admitted that the mere discussion of tariffs has already taken a toll. Business leaders, including himself, have observed a noticeable decline in investment levels in Ciudad Juárez, attributed to the prevailing political uncertainties. He has recorded a 7% drop in business over the past year, projecting that these trends will continue until the tariff threats cease.
Additionally, a group of maquiladoras in the area reported that at least three factories have ceased operations amid these challenges. Salayandia summarized the sentiment when he stated, “Every time we encounter this rhetoric from political leaders, it sends tremors throughout the border. Our products are distributed globally, and companies might seek greener pastures elsewhere if conditions worsen.”
