BAMAKO, Mali — The regional bloc of West Africa, known as ECOWAS, is experiencing formidable challenges following the decision of three countries led by military juntas—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—to withdraw from the group. This departure, which formally took place in January 2024, has significantly diminished ECOWAS’s influence and political authority, leaving the bloc with just 12 member states. The exits represent a historic moment, being the first such instances in the organization’s 50-year existence, and analysts warn that a diminished ECOWAS may further destabilize the already fragile region.
ECOWAS, which stands for the Economic Community of West African States, was established in 1975 with the aim of fostering economic integration among its 15 member nations. The organization has also played a vital role in addressing various domestic issues across its member states, including political, economic, and security challenges. The bloc offers advantages such as visa-free travel and access to a large market that exceeds $700 billion, catering to a population nearing 400 million. However, in specific areas of West Africa, ECOWAS is viewed as facing a legitimacy crisis, where citizens feel that the bloc serves the interests of political leaders more than the general populace.
The decline in relations between ECOWAS and the junta-led countries has escalated especially after the bloc imposed severe sanctions on Niger to compel its military government to reverse a recent coup. These sanctions have been notably aggressive, including border closures, the suspension of financial transactions, and a significant reduction in Niger’s electricity supply. The three countries labeled these sanctions as “inhumane” and accused ECOWAS of deviating from its foundational principles and the ideals of pan-Africanism.
Following their exits from ECOWAS, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso established a new coalition called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), referencing the broad southern region of the Sahara Desert. After leaving, these nations also severed military ties with traditional Western allies like the United States and France, shifting their focus towards Russia for military assistance. Although ECOWAS made efforts to mend relations by lifting sanctions against Niger in February and attempting to initiate dialogue, the AES has dismissed these overtures.
As the situation unfolds, ECOWAS has indicated that it would keep open the possibility for the three departing nations to access the same benefits as other member states. However, the junta-led countries are now in the process of issuing their own travel documents for their citizens. Meanwhile, trade transactions are expected to proceed normally, as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso still belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which facilitates commerce and the unrestricted flow of goods among its eight-member nations, including Senegal, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Togo, and Benin.
A six-month window for discussions between ECOWAS and these three countries is set to conclude in July, according to Babacar Ndiaye, a political analyst at the Wathi think tank focused on West Africa. However, the likelihood that the AES will “reconsider their withdrawal” appears slim. Concerns remain regarding the capability of a weakened ECOWAS to address security challenges emanating from the conflict-stricken Sahel region, particularly as these crises may spread to the coastal areas of West Africa. Additionally, experts foresee diminished investments flowing into the three nations that are among the poorest in the region, heightening their economic vulnerabilities, as articulated by Charlie Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
