CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — RJ Davis finds solace in having faced similar challenges in the past. Nearly three years back, his North Carolina squad was unsure of securing an NCAA Tournament berth as they headed to Duke for the farewell game of legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski. In an unexpected turn, the Tar Heels emerged victorious, propelling them on a remarkable journey to the NCAA title game, which included defeating the Blue Devils once more in the Final Four, marking the end of Coach K’s illustrious career.
As Davis competes in his final year, the Tar Heels are aiming for a resurgence akin to that memorable run when they face off against their storied rivals this Saturday. The second-ranked Blue Devils are currently in excellent form, being a strong contender for the NCAA title, while the Tar Heels appear uncertain about qualifying for the tournament with their current performance. “Going into that game in 2022, our backs were against the wall, people didn’t really believe in us, but we believed in ourselves,” Davis reflected. “And that’s what got us over the hump—that’s the same feeling I have about this team now.”
However, time is of the essence for the Tar Heels, who stand at 13-9 overall and 6-4 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). They kicked off the season positioned at No. 9 in the AP Top 25, with Davis recognized as the sole returning first-team Associated Press All-American. However, by mid-December, they dropped out of the rankings after succumbing to some of the nation’s elite teams, including the current No. 1 ranked Auburn, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Florida, No. 7 Michigan State, and No. 11 Kansas.
Despite showing flashes of high-caliber play, the Tar Heels have struggled to maintain consistency. They approach the upcoming rivalry game after losing three of their last four contests, with two of those losses coming by a single point against Stanford and Wake Forest. Their only recent win came in a hard-fought overtime match against Boston College, who currently only has one league victory. “I mean, you change one possession in (some) of their games, their record looks a lot different,” noted Duke’s coach Jon Scheyer, emphasizing the respect he holds for the Tar Heels.
Nevertheless, as February approaches, the Tar Heels may be staring down the potential of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years, adding to the unpredictable nature of Hubert Davis’ tenure as head coach. This follows a previous season where UNC clinched the outright ACC regular-season title and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. “I think the challenge is to face this with positivity,” said RJ Davis. “We’ve lost three out of four, but the important thing is how we choose to respond.”
The primary challenge lies in matching up against the imposing Blue Devils, who are currently 18-2 with an impressive 10-0 conference record and the longest active winning streak in the nation at 14 games. They also boast a standout 6-foot-9 freshman in Cooper Flagg, widely considered a candidate for national player of the year. Concerns for the Tar Heels revolve around their inconsistent post play following the departure of five-year veteran Armando Bacot, which has shifted the offensive demands onto a smaller perimeter. The team’s leading scorers—Davis (17.6), freshman Ian Jackson (14.7), junior Seth Trimble (12.3), and sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau (10.7)—are all 6-foot-4 or shorter, while newcomer Cade Tyson from Belmont, a 6-foot-7 addition intended to address size and shooting, has found it challenging to get playing time.
With every member in Duke’s main rotation exceeding 6-foot-5, this size mismatch raises significant concerns for UNC. “They’re athletic, they’re long, they can cover a lot of space… They also have the ability to switch everything,” observed Hubert Davis. “When teams do that, your spacing and movement become critical. You must identify and exploit any mismatches.”
Looking beyond the imminent clash on Saturday, the Tar Heels find themselves in a precarious postseason situation. They currently hold a dismal 1-8 record in Quadrant 1 games, crucial for postseason aspirations, with their sole victory occurring against UCLA in New York before Christmas. The upcoming match against Duke marks the second in a sequence of four potential Quadrant 1 matchups, further including a February 8 game against Pittsburgh and a visit to Clemson shortly after.
Following these challenging contests, the Tar Heels’ schedule features several matchups against lower-ranked teams, which could diminish their chances for significant victories, undermining their postseason credentials. Currently, they are projected as an 11-seed according to BracketMatrix, a platform that aggregates tournament predictions, featuring in 48 of 84 mock brackets. “We trust coach, we trust each other,” Jackson stated. “And we believe in the work that we’ve put in, we know what we practice, so it’s about going out there and implementing that.”
