TEL AVIV, Israel — Over 15 months ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proclaimed that Israel was committed to achieving “total victory” in its conflict with Hamas, aiming to eliminate the militant group and secure the freedom of hostages. However, skepticism has grown among Israelis as a week-long ceasefire with Hamas unfolds, raising questions about the feasibility of such ambitions.
The persistent presence of Hamas has sparked doubts, particularly with the recent return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza. This reintegration complicates any potential resurgence of military action against Hamas if the ceasefire agreement is not extended beyond its initial duration. Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted the challenges Israel would face in re-engaging militarily, questioning whether relocating the population once again would be a viable strategy.
Since Israel launched its military offensive following the deadly attack by Hamas on October 7, which resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli fatalities and around 250 hostages, the conflict has taken a severe toll. Israeli forces executed extensive airstrikes and a subsequent ground invasion, claiming substantial losses inflicted on Hamas, including the deaths of many senior leaders and thousands of fighters. Despite this, the toll on Palestinian civilians has been catastrophic, with local authorities reporting over 47,000 deaths amid ongoing conflict and devastation.
The ongoing ceasefire’s first phase includes a reported release of 33 hostages from Gaza and the freeing of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel, alongside a significant boost in humanitarian aid to the region. Increasingly, Israel has shifted military personnel to facilitate the return of more than 1 million displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.
As the talks for a second phase of the ceasefire are anticipated to commence next week, there are concerns that if an agreement is not reached, a significant number of remaining hostages—more than half of the 90—will still remain in Gaza. It is feared that a third of these individuals might have already lost their lives during the conflict.
Despite mounting international and domestic calls for a clear post-war strategy regarding governance in Gaza, Netanyahu has struggled to present an alternative to Hamas, which continues to maintain its position of power. This status was evident as Hamas quickly organized visible displays of authority once the ceasefire commenced, showcasing uniformed police and orchestrating public events celebrating the release of hostages, featuring masked gunmen and enthusiastic crowds.
Experts believe that, despite the severe casualties and structural destruction, Hamas may emerge with a perception of victory, arguing that Israel has failed to achieve its initial objectives. Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst specializing in Palestinian affairs, suggested that the return of displaced Palestinians is a significant win for Hamas, who have long demanded the withdrawal of Israeli forces and cessation of hostilities as part of a resolution.
To aid in the return of residents, Israel opened the Netzarim corridor, a military-controlled zone within northern Gaza, potentially allowing Hamas more operational freedom and diminishing any leverage Israel might have to regain control should hostilities restart. Giora Eiland, a former Israeli general, remarked that the conclusion of the fighting has largely favored Hamas, equating the current situation to Israel being “at the mercy of Hamas.”
In this evolving landscape, the role of external figures like President Donald Trump could be pivotal. With indications that he prefers continued negotiations over a resumption of fighting, the interactions between him and Israeli leadership in upcoming meetings may clarify future steps.
While Netanyahu reiterated that Israel remains dedicated to fulfilling the war’s objectives during the ceasefire, military specialists recognize that re-engaging in conflict presents numerous hurdles. The loss of international support following earlier military actions and positive public sentiments toward the recently freed hostages contribute to a declining appetite for renewed combat among the Israeli populace. Even amid disappointment over Hamas’s continued influence, the prospect of rekindling hostilities seems less appealing than before.
The political fallout of the ceasefire is palpable for Netanyahu, who faces pressures from more hardline factions within his coalition demanding an aggressive stance against Hamas. Complications arise as one coalition member has already resigned over the ceasefire, while another threatens to destabilize Netanyahu’s government if military actions are not renewed after the first phase concludes.
As criticisms mount regarding the fulfillment of promises made by his administration, retired general Israel Ziv emphasizes the need for a reassessment of strategic goals should the conflict resume. He underscored the notion that, beyond political expediency, the rationale for restarting hostilities appears tenuous at best.
