HARRISBURG, Pa. — The Republican Party has successfully regained momentum in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. There are high hopes among party members that this favorable trend will influence state contests this year, which will determine whether the existing left-leaning majorities on their state Supreme Courts will remain intact or shift towards conservative dominance.
The results of these upcoming elections could have significant implications, impacting critical issues such as abortion rights, election controversies, voting regulations, and congressional redistricting. Financial contributions are soaring, with expectations that total spending will surpass the $70 million combined spent on previous Supreme Court races in these states two years ago.
Elon Musk, the CEO of both SpaceX and Tesla, is closely monitoring the competitive race in Wisconsin. His interest is reflective of deeper tensions surrounding Trump’s prior pardons of supporters involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots. “These races seem to be garnering far more attention than in years past,” stated J.J. Abbott, head of Commonwealth Communications, a progressive group based in Pennsylvania.
In recent years, state Supreme Court elections have evolved into highly contentious and expensive battlegrounds, as these courts play an instrumental role in adjudicating divisive matters. Following Trump’s victories in both states in the previous November, Republicans are optimistic about their chances to convert the court’s ideological landscape to their favor.
The courts have been crucial players due to the divided nature of both state governments, each with Democratic governors and legislatures that are either fully or partially controlled by Republicans. In just the last few years, liberal majorities in both states’ highest courts have ruled in favor of Democrats in critical decisions regarding district boundaries in Wisconsin and congressional mapping in Pennsylvania.
Additionally, significant win for Democrats involved overturning Wisconsin’s prohibition on absentee ballot drop boxes and validating the use of provisional ballots in Pennsylvania when mail-in votes are rejected. In a recent message on his social media platform X, Musk referenced the Wisconsin drop box ruling, asserting the importance of voting Republican to counter potential voting fraud. However, a recount, a nonpartisan audit, and a conservative law firm’s report substantiated that there were no significant instances of fraud in Wisconsin during the 2020 election, where absentee ballot boxes were utilized.
Democratic candidates are leveraging Musk’s involvement in Wisconsin to boost their fundraising efforts. Concurrently, comments made by the Republican-backed candidate, which suggested that those charged in connection with the Capitol riot didn’t receive a “fair shot” in court, are being highlighted by liberal factions. Harry Dunn, a former U.S. Capitol Police officer present during the insurrection, plans to hold news conferences in Wisconsin to publicly condemn these remarks.
In the forthcoming elections, Democrats intend to position the state high courts as vital defenses against the conservative majority within the U.S. Supreme Court, the Trump administration, and a GOP-led Congress. Abortion rights are predicted to be a dominating theme once again, reflecting the significant role they played in judicial races in the previous year and in the Supreme Court campaigns in 2023.
The upcoming election in Wisconsin, scheduled for April 1 to fill a retiring liberal justice’s seat, will be crucial in determining whether liberals or conservatives will maintain control over a 4-3 majority. Nick Ramos, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, emphasized the importance of this race as a bellwether for national political sentiment, especially after the razor-thin victories reported in November.
The Wisconsin Democratic Party has officially backed Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford, while Waukesha County Circuit Judge Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney general, has received endorsements from various conservative politicians and organizations. Significant issues awaiting resolution in Wisconsin courts include legal challenges to the state’s 1849 abortion ban and the 2011 law that curtailed collective bargaining rights for educators and public sector employees.
In Pennsylvania, the general election in November will see three Democratic justices striving to maintain their seats, putting their 5-2 majority at stake. The state’s Supreme Court will deliberate on cases challenging laws that restrict Medicaid funding for abortions and disqualify specific mail-in ballots. Over the past year, spending linked to the judicial races has surged past $70 million in both states, with the Wisconsin race alone setting records by exceeding $51 million in expenditures.
Republican candidates and their supporters express confidence in amassing the financial resources necessary to reclaim majority control of the court. Schimel indicated that a $1.1 million television ad campaign had already been launched, marking an early investment in media for the Wisconsin race, soon matched by Crawford’s campaign.
However, concerns about voter fatigue are evident, particularly in Wisconsin, where recent elections were flooded with campaign activities and advertisements. Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff underscored the importance of grassroots campaigning to combat this fatigue by directly engaging with voters. Pennsylvania’s Westmoreland County Democratic Party chair, Michelle McFall, remarked that vibrant discussions around the retention races have been prominent in party meetings, stressing the necessity of keeping voters focused amidst the distractions presented by Trump’s presidency.
Republicans are yet to ascertain the potential financial contributions that could bolster their campaigns in the retention races. The effectiveness of the “No” campaign could hinge on mobilizing high-profile support, including potential involvement from Trump himself.
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Bauer reported from Madison, Wisconsin.
