WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is asserting that diminishing Russia’s oil income is the most effective strategy to prompt Moscow to conclude its prolonged conflict with Ukraine, which has now persisted for nearly three years. Trump’s early days in office have been marked by a focus on OPEC+, the coalition of oil-producing nations, believing they can influence the situation by lowering oil prices.
On Friday, Trump reiterated his request for this group, led by Saudi Arabia, to cut oil prices. He argues that such a reduction would significantly impair Russia’s finances, which are crucial for sustaining its military efforts and could compel President Vladimir Putin to reassess the war. “One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money,” Trump stated to reporters, indicating that an oil price drop would lead to an immediate halt in the conflict.
However, experts in the industry caution that persuading OPEC+ to act may be challenging. The alliance recently delayed plans to increase oil production, citing lower-than-expected demand alongside competition from non-affiliated producers. Trump also reiterated his views on OPEC+ during a virtual session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, emphasizing the importance of their involvement in resolving the crisis.
Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, echoed Trump’s sentiments on Friday, suggesting that a reduction in oil prices to approximately $45 per barrel could be pivotal in pushing Russia towards ending the conflict. “Russia is gaining billions of dollars from oil sales,” Kellogg pointed out in a Fox News interview, highlighting the financial impact such a price drop could have.
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia is complex despite their cooperation in the oil sector. In 2016, Russia, alongside other non-OPEC producers, joined forces with Saudi Arabia to form OPEC+. Since then, both countries have emerged as the leading producers within this collaboration. The formation came in response to plummeting oil prices resulting from a surge in U.S. shale oil production, with the U.S. notably absent from OPEC or OPEC+.
Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy noted that while Trump enjoys a favorable rapport with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, similar to that of his predecessor, President Biden, the Saudis also have their financial obligations. De Haan emphasized that oil companies operate based on economic realities rather than personal relationships.
The Kremlin has pushed back against the notion that targeting oil revenues could influence negotiations regarding the war. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the ongoing conflict is unrelated to oil prices but rather is tied to perceived threats to Russia’s national security and a lack of acknowledgment of its concerns by the U.S. and Europe.
While the U.S. and its allies have established a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil, Moscow has managed to maintain a consistent income stream through sales to countries like China and India that benefit from discounted pricing. Following a recent phone call with the Saudi crown prince—his first outreach to a foreign leader since returning to the White House—Trump expressed a desire for Saudi investments in the U.S. and mentioned his ongoing hopes to facilitate a normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Trump’s public insistence on pressing Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations could present risks. Biden’s earlier efforts to rally the Saudis to boost oil supply met with rejection, showcasing the complexities of international oil diplomacy. When asked about how Trump’s approach might yield different results than Biden’s, Trump’s press secretary articulated confidence without specific details.
Industry experts believe that while there may eventually be a response from Saudi Arabia, it is unlikely to be immediate. The current global oil market is experiencing a surplus, with the International Energy Agency reporting production levels that exceed demand by approximately 700,000 barrels per day, pressuring prices. Recent trading placed Brent crude at about $78, complicating the request for price reductions further.
Kellogg shared Trump’s perspective that creating economic pressure may drive Russia back to the negotiating table more effectively than solely focusing on military victories for Ukraine. However, he expressed skepticism about whether humanitarian concerns significantly impact Russian decision-making strategies, citing historical contexts where the loss of life has not deterred military advances.
As criticism of President Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation has surfaced, Trump has seized upon these issues as central to his 2024 campaign narrative. He frequently criticizes Biden and Vice President Harris for their substantial military aid commitments to Ukraine, asserting that his leadership would have prevented the war and that he could swiftly resolve it upon taking office.
Acknowledging the complexity of the situation, Trump has indicated that finding a resolution to the conflict could take longer than anticipated. Recently, he remarked on his social media platform that America should not overlook Russia’s role in helping to defeat the Nazis in World War II and reaffirmed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Putin. “I really would like to be able to meet with President Putin soon and get that war… ended,” Trump expressed at Davos, emphasizing the human cost of the ongoing conflict.
