WASHINGTON — Although the control of the U.S. House is not at stake during the special congressional primaries taking place in Florida on Tuesday, Republicans are keen to find successors for former GOP Representatives Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz as a means to bolster their narrow majority in the House.
Former President Donald Trump continues to be a significant influence in these races, with his endorsements resonating in both the primary and the upcoming special general election scheduled for April 1. Trump has officially backed candidates in both districts, having previously won solid majorities in these areas during the November election.
In Gaetz’s former 1st Congressional District, Trump has endorsed state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis in a competitive pool of ten candidates. Meanwhile, in the 6th Congressional District formerly held by Waltz, Trump has supported state Representative Randy Fine, who faces two opponents. Notably, Fine’s current representation includes a Brevard County state Senate district, which is distinct from the Palm Coast-area seat he aims to occupy.
For Democrats, gun control advocate Gay Valimont is running unopposed for her party’s nomination in the 1st District. Valimont challenged Gaetz in November, securing 34% of the vote. In the 6th District, George Selmont, an attorney and filmmaker, is competing against educator Josh Weil for the Democratic nomination. Selmont previously ran for a nearby congressional seat in 2018, gaining 32% against Republican Rep. John Rutherford, while Weil teaches in Osceola County.
Geographically, the 1st Congressional District lies close to Alabama along the Gulf Coast in the western part of Florida’s panhandle, featuring significant military installations like Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. This district is consistently among the most Republican-aligned regions in the state, having voted for Republican presidential candidates for nearly 60 years.
Conversely, the 6th Congressional District, located on the Atlantic Coast and including Daytona Beach, has also demonstrated strong Republican support, with candidates from that party winning all six counties in the district during the last four presidential elections. Some of these counties, like Lake County, have not voted for a Democrat in a presidential race since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s time in 1944.
Trump’s backing is expected to play a critical role in shaping electoral outcomes in both districts, where even his lowest vote share during last year’s elections was still significant, garnering 59% in Escambia County of the 1st District.
In the November voting period, both Gaetz and Waltz were successful in their reelections with impressive percentages of 66% and 67%, respectively. However, the political landscape shifted when Gaetz resigned following his nomination by Trump to serve as attorney general — a position he later stepped down from amid an ongoing federal investigation. Waltz recently resigned to take on the role of White House national security adviser.
In Florida, a machine recount is automatically triggered if the vote margin is 0.5% or less. Should this recount yield a margin of 0.25% or less, a manual recount of the overvotes and undervotes will follow. The process of declaring winners is undertaken with careful observation of margins that could influence recounts or any potential legal disputes.
As for the primaries scheduled for Tuesday, polls will close at 7 p.m. local time in the 6th District and at 8 p.m. in the 1st District. The special primaries will determine candidates for the Republican primary in the 1st District and for both Democratic and Republican primaries in the 6th District. Notably, with only one Democratic candidate in the 1st District, there will be no competitive primary for that party there.
Voter participation in the primaries is confined based on party registration, meaning individuals associated with one party cannot cross over to vote in another’s primary. In terms of registration, as of October 2024, there were approximately 301,000 active Republicans and 117,000 active Democrats in the 1st Congressional District, while the 6th District reflected around 262,000 registered Republicans and 138,000 registered Democrats.
In the previous Republican congressional primaries, turnout was about 34% in the 1st District and approximately 31% in the 6th District. For the current cycle, by Friday morning, over 11,000 ballots for the 1st District Republican primary were cast, alongside nearly 17,000 for the Republican primary in the 6th District and close to 10,000 in the 6th District for Democrats.
Vote counting typically commences immediately after polls close. During the last general election, the initial results from the 1st District were reported just a minute after polls closed, whereas the 6th District displayed similar timing.
With all preparations in place, the special general elections in both the 1st and the 6th Congressional Districts will occur in about 63 days from Tuesday.
